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The correct analysis and evaluation on present situation is the key to improving emergency logistics capability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper took emergency logistics capability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object. It established analysis model of emergency logistics capability in Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on fuzzy matter-element method. This paper did further study by applying this model. Accordingly, it obtained variation chart of the first-level indicator capability and variation trend chart of comprehensive capability. Finally, this paper summarized and verified research result. The conclusion of this paper has certain instructive effect on improving the emergency logistics capability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and that could be of referential value for the evaluation and analysis of similar problems.

In the process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, to improve the capability of emergency prevention and disposal is essential. To evaluate and summarize on present situation correctly as well as reasonably is the beginning of all key points. The fuzzy matter-element method is a method to solve the fuzzy incompatible problems by promoting the association transformation among things, which was applied to the evaluation of problems with multiple factors. In this paper, the problem of regional emergency logistics capability is complex problem with many influencing factors. Therefore, fuzzy matter-element method research on emergency logistics capability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was adopted in this paper.

In the research of regional logistics capability at present, it is mainly based on quantitative analysis abroad, and mainly based on qualitative analysis in domestic. Enterprise logistics capability was measured by Ellinger from five aspects, the time of delivery, stability of service quality, service level, advance notice of out of stock and customer response. Logistics capability in parts of Italy was analyzed and researched by DeMarco through system dynamics model. Regional logistics resources were operated and managed during a short time through the establishment of regional logistics system model to enhance the capability of regional logistics.

In addition, in terms of regional logistics capability evaluation, domestic research mainly includes: 1) The evaluation of regional logistics capability based on principal component. Index system of Sichuan logistics capability evaluation was established by Zhang Jie [

1) Fuzzy composite element of establishing evaluation object

Matter-element is the basic unit of matter-element theory, which is consist of evaluation object M, characteristic index C and characteristic value X. In the evaluation of emergency logistics capability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, m Evaluation of things and n main factors C 1 , C 2 , ⋯ , C n were assumed, each major factor has p minor factors C 11 , C 12 , ⋯ , C 1 p ; C 21 , C 22 , ⋯ , C 2 p ; C n 1 , C n 2 , ⋯ , C n p the corresponding value is

X j i k ( j = 1 , 2 , ⋯ , m ; i = 1 , 2 , ⋯ , n ; k = 1 , 2 , ⋯ , p )

n dimensional fuzzy composite element of m things R m n is obtained. That is:

R m n = [ M 1 M 2 ⋯ M m C 11 X 111 X 211 ⋯ X m 11 C 12 X 112 X 212 ⋯ X m 12 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C 1 p X 11 p X 21 p ⋯ X m 1 p C 21 X 121 X 221 ⋯ X m 21 C 22 X 122 X 222 ⋯ X m 22 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C 2 p X 12 p X 22 p ⋯ X m 2 p ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C n 1 X 1 n 1 X 2 n 1 ⋯ X m n 1 C n 2 X 1 n 2 X 2 n 1 ⋯ X m n 2 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C n p X 1 n p X 2 n p ⋯ X m n p ] (1)

2) To determine membership

Because characteristic value X j i of fuzzy matter-element make different contributions to M j , and the dimensions are different . So blurring these values X j i , which is about to change these values into membership μ ( X j i ) . Membership is used to measure the extent of the amount of value attached to a fuzzy set. Generally speaking, it contains two types of memberships, respectively are:

Positive index (the bigger the better):

μ j i = X j i − m i n X j i m a x X j i − m i n X j i (2)

Negative index (the smaller the better):

μ j i = m a x X j i − X j i m a x X j i − m i n X j i (3)

Among them, m a x X j i and m i n X j i respectively represent the maximum and minimum of all magnitudes X j i ( j = 1 , 2 , ⋯ , m ; i = 1 , 2 , ⋯ , n ) corresponding to the ith index of each evaluation object. Therefore, magnitudes X j i of fuzzy composite element R m n (1) is transformed into membership μ j i , fuzzy composite element R ′ m n composed of optimal membership degree is established according to Equation (2) and Equation (3), it is given by:

R ′ m n = [ M 1 M 2 ⋯ M m C 11 μ 111 μ 211 ⋯ μ m 11 C 12 μ 112 μ 212 ⋯ μ m 12 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C 1 p μ 11 p μ 21 p ⋯ μ m 1 p C 21 μ 121 μ 221 ⋯ μ m 21 C 22 μ 122 μ 222 ⋯ μ m 22 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C 2 p μ 12 p μ 22 p ⋯ μ m 2 p ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C n 1 μ 1 n 1 μ 2 n 1 ⋯ μ m n 1 C n 2 μ 1 n 2 μ 2 n 1 ⋯ μ m n 2 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C n p μ 1 n p μ 2 n p ⋯ μ m n p ] (4)

3) To construct evaluation index weight compound element

a) C n p and ω n p

C n p 1 m ( μ 1 n p + μ 2 n p + ⋯ + μ m n p ) = 1 m ∑ j = 1 m μ j n p (5)

ω n p = 1 m ∑ j = 1 m μ j n p / 1 m ∑ j = 1 m ∑ i = 1 n ∑ k = 1 p μ m i k (6)

b) Weight

To establish a minor factor of weighted composite element R ω i k , that is:

R ω i k = [ C 11 C 12 ⋯ C 1 p C 21 C 22 ⋯ C 2 p ⋯ C n 1 C n 2 ⋯ C n p ω 11 ω 12 ⋯ ω 1 p ω 21 ω 22 ⋯ ω 2 p ⋯ ω n 1 ω n 2 ⋯ ω n p ] (7)

Supposing R ω i represents main factor weighted composite element, we use method to subjectively determine the weight of indexes, the weighted composite element of main factor is established, that is:

R ω i = [ C 1 C 2 ⋯ C n ω 1 ω 2 ⋯ ω n ] (8)

4) To define central composite fuzzy matter-element

Supposing R k represents central composite fuzzy matter-element,

R k = R ′ m n ∗ R ω i k

where “*” indicates that multiplication is first, then do addition, according to Equation (4) and Equation (7), R k is obtained, that is:

R k = [ M 1 M 2 ⋯ M m C 1 K 11 = ∑ k = 1 p μ 11 k ω 1 k K 21 = ∑ k = 1 p μ 21 k ω 1 k ⋯ K m 1 = ∑ k = 1 p μ m 1 k ω 1 k C 2 K 12 = ∑ k = 1 p μ 12 k ω 2 k K 22 = ∑ k = 1 p μ 22 k ω 2 k ⋯ K m 2 = ∑ k = 1 p μ m 2 k ω 2 k ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C n K 1 n = ∑ k = 1 p μ 1 n k ω n k K 2 n = ∑ k = 1 p μ 2 n k ω n k ⋯ K m n = ∑ k = 1 p μ m n k ω n k ] (9)

5) To establish comprehensive evaluation of compound fuzzy matter-element

Supposing comprehensive evaluation of compound fuzzy matter-element is R D , before which single evaluation compound fuzzy matter-element R d is obtained by the equation R d = R k ∗ R ω i , Equation (8) and Equation (9), R d is given by:

R d = [ M 1 M 2 ⋯ M m C 1 d 11 = K 11 ω 1 d 21 = K 21 ω 1 ⋯ d m 1 = K m 1 ω 1 C 2 d 12 = K 12 ω 2 d 22 = K 22 ω 2 ⋯ d m 2 = K m 2 ω 2 ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ ⋯ C n d 1 n = K 1 n ω n d 2 n = K 2 n ω n ⋯ d m n = K m n ω n ] (10)

Finally, on the basis of the above equation, comprehensive evaluation of compound fuzzy matter-element R D is:

R D = [ M 1 M 2 ⋯ M m D 1 D 2 ⋯ D m ] (11)

Among which, the equation D j = ∑ d j i ( j = 1 , 2 , ⋯ , m ; i = 1 , 2 , ⋯ , n ) is the final comprehensive evaluation value of the jth thing to be obtained.

According to the status of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics, we can establish two-level rating system. Specific indicators are emergency logistics human resources support capability (including the proportion of people who receive higher education C 11 (%); the scale of employment in information and information technology industry C 12 (ten thousand persons); employment in transportation industry C 13 (ten thousand persons); the scale of rescue team C 14 (person); emergency logistics economic support capability (including the GDP of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei C 21 (one hundred million yuan)); fixed assets investment in transportation industry C 22 (one hundred million yuan); fixed assets investment in information and information technology industry C 23 (one hundred million yuan); disaster relief material reserve expenditure C 24 (ten thousand yuan); emergency logistics information system security capability (including the internet penetration rate C 31 (%)); the perfection degree of emergency database C 32 (%); the perfection degree of regional emergency C 33 (%); infrastructure equipment support capability (including highway mileage C 41 (ten thousand kilometers)); railway mileage C 42 (ten thousand kilometers); cargo handling capacity of ports C 43 . (ten million tons); vehicles of freight transportation C 44 . (ten thousand tractor); the satisfaction of emergency material coverage C 45 (%); the reliability of emergency access C 46 ; the number of beds in medical and health institutions C 47 . (ten thousand sheet) and emergency logistics management capability(including the capability of pre-arranged planning of emergency C 51 ; the capability of government coordination C 52 ; the capability of law guarantee C 53 ; the capability of expert decision decision- making C 54 ; the cooperation degree of regional logistics C 55 .

1) To establish fuzzy composite element of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability

In this paper, these six years from 2009-2004 is regarded as six things to be evaluated, these 23 indexes that are selected from preceding text, the related index data is regarded as characteristic value. The quantitative index was obtained by querying China statistical yearbook, the National Bureau of statistics and relevant government websites, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei three relevant index, qualitative index was set by using expert scoring, divided into nine grades {very good, fine, better, good, general, poor, poorer, very poor, extreme poor, (9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1)} corresponding to [

2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

C_{11} | 11.4 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 16.5 | 17.8 |

C_{12} | 44.74 | 50.2 | 57.03 | 62.4 | 70.44 | 73.52 |

C_{13} | 87.84 | 86.67 | 93.22 | 96.21 | 101.17 | 109.49 |

C_{14} | 200,936 | 243,312 | 390,763 | 671,529 | 795,501 | 898,195 |

C_{21} | 36,910.36 | 43,732.3 | 52,074.97 | 57,348.29 | 62,685.77 | 66,474.45 |

C_{22} | 2020.93 | 2552.2 | 2403.75 | 2947.81 | 3364.83 | 3539.43 |

C_{23} | 201.75 | 230.9 | 261.86 | 326.03 | 377.82 | 400.96 |

C_{24} | 472.3 | 1059.8 | 1303.1 | 1526.4 | 1593.7 | 1732.3 |

C_{31} | 35.6 | 40.5 | 44.9 | 49.5 | 54.0 | 55.8 |

C_{32} | 50.1 | 55.7 | 64.1 | 74.9 | 83.6 | 91.2 |

C_{33} | 3.1 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 |

C_{41} | 18.72 | 19.02 | 19.35 | 19.99 | 21.19 | 21.72 |

C_{42} | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.78 | 0.86 | 0.89 |

C_{43} | 8.90 | 10.21 | 11.64 | 12.38 | 13.90 | 14.94 |

C_{44} | 84.36 | 97.98 | 114.78 | 127.81 | 166.09 | 174.46 |

C_{45} | 53.6 | 58 | 65.9 | 67.7 | 74 | 86.3 |

C_{46} | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 7.6 |

C_{47} | 36.91 | 39.13 | 41.06 | 43.81 | 46.52 | 49.36 |

C_{51} | 4.9 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 8.1 |

C_{52} | 4.3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 7 | 7.7 |

C_{53} | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 6 | 6.6 | 7.1 |

C_{54} | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 8.3 |

C_{55} | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 6.9 |

According to the data in

R ′ m n = [ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 C 11 0 0.14 0.25 0.45 0.79 1 C 12 0 0.19 0.43 0.61 0.89 1 C 13 0.05 0 0.29 0.42 0.64 1 C 14 0 0.06 0.27 0.67 0.85 1 C 21 0 0.23 0.51 0.69 0.87 1 C 22 0 0.35 0.25 0.61 0.89 1 C 23 0 0.15 0.30 0.62 0.88 1 C 24 0 0.47 0.66 0.84 0.89 1 C 31 0 0.24 0.46 0.69 0.91 1 C 32 0 0.14 0.34 0.60 0.82 1 C 33 0 0.22 0.56 0.69 0.48 1 C 41 0 0.10 0.21 0.42 0.82 1 C 42 0 0 0.20 0.45 0.85 1 C 43 0 0.22 0.45 0.58 0.83 1 C 44 0 0.15 0.34 0.48 0.91 1 C 45 0 0.13 0.38 0.43 0.62 1 C 46 0 0.20 0.43 0.63 0.83 1 C 47 0 0.18 0.33 0.55 0.77 1 C 51 0 0.25 0.44 0.56 0.72 1 C 52 0 0.24 0.55 0.68 0.79 1 C 53 0 0.28 0.44 0.56 0.80 1 C 54 0 0.10 0.34 0.52 0.76 1 C 55 0 0.19 0.30 0.42 0.70 1 ] (12)

Then, weighted composite element R ω i k is established, as shown in Equation (13).

R ω i k = C 11 0.0387 C 12 0.0461 C 13 0.0353 C 14 0.0422 C 21 0.0488 C 22 0.0457 C 23 0.0436 C 24 0.0569 C 31 0.0486 C 32 0.0427 C 33 0.0480 C 41 0.0377 C 42 0.0369 C 43 0.0454 C 44 0.0425 C 45 0.0379 C 46 0.0454 C 47 0.0419 C 51 0.0438 C 52 0.0477 C 53 0.0455 C 54 0.0402 C 55 0.0384 (13)

2) To establish Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability central composite fuzzy matter-element

Supposing R k represents Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability centralized composite fuzzy matter-element, Equation (19) is given by equation R k = R ′ m n ∗ R ω i k , Equation (12) and Equation (13).

R k = [ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 C 1 0.0018 0.0166 0.0509 0.0899 0.1304 0.1624 C 2 0 0.0601 0.0872 0.1364 0.1722 0.1950 C 3 0 0.0283 0.0636 0.0925 0.1163 0.1393 C 4 0 0.0417 0.0977 0.1471 0.2320 0.2876 C 5 0 0.0462 0.0899 0.1193 0.1631 0.2157 ] (14)

3) To define Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability central composite fuzzy matter-element

By expert scoring, we get four first-level evaluation indexes, their weighted composite element R ω i is shown in Equation (15).

R ω i = [ C 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 0.0752 0.4734 0.1503 0.0551 0.2460 ] (15)

R D represents comprehensive evaluation compound fuzzy matter-element. Firstly, R d is obtained by equation R d = R k ∗ R ω i , adopting Equation (14) and Equation (15), as shown in Equation (16).

R d = [ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 C 1 0.0001 0.0012 0.0038 0.0067 0.0098 0.0122 C 2 0 0.0285 0.0413 0.0646 0.0815 0.0923 C 3 0 0.0042 0.0096 0.0139 0.0175 0.0209 C 4 0 0.0023 0.0054 0.0081 0.0128 0.0158 C 5 0 0.0114 0.0221 0.0293 0.0401 0.0531 ] (16)

Finally, comprehensive evaluation compound fuzzy matter-element R D is given by:

R D = [ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 D j 0.001 0.0476 0.0822 0.1226 0.1617 0.1944 ] (17)

We could find D_{6} > D_{5} > D_{4} > D_{3} > D_{2} > D_{1}, there is increasing trends of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability from the year 2009 to the year 2014.

1) Comprehensive capability evaluation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics

In order to facilitate evaluation and analysis, Equation (17) is transformed into figure, as shown in

We can see intuitively from

the year 2014, but the growth rate slowed down year by year. From the year 2009 to the year 2010, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability rose sharply.

2) The evaluation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability of indexes at all levels.

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability is the result of comprehensive function of each first-class influence index, so we need to make further analysis. Equation (16) is transformed into

The weigh of the first-class index of emergency logistics management capability is only second to the economic support capability, but we can see from

2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | μ i k ¯ | ω i k | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

C11 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.79 | 1 | 0.438 | 0.0387 |

C12 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.61 | 0.89 | 1 | 0.521 | 0.0461 |

C13 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.42 | 0.64 | 1 | 0.399 | 0.0353 |

C14 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1 | 0.477 | 0.0422 |

C21 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.87 | 1 | 0.551 | 0.0488 |

C22 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.61 | 0.89 | 1 | 0.516 | 0.0457 |

C23 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 1 | 0.493 | 0.0436 |

C24 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.66 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 1 | 0.642 | 0.0569 |

C31 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 0.91 | 1 | 0.549 | 0.0486 |

C32 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 1 | 0.483 | 0.0427 |

C33 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.56 | 0.69 | 0.78 | 1 | 0.542 | 0.0480 |

C41 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.21 | 0.42 | 0.82 | 1 | 0.426 | 0.0377 |

C42 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.45 | 0.85 | 1 | 0.417 | 0.0369 |

C43 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.83 | 1 | 0.513 | 0.0454 |

C44 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.91 | 1 | 0.480 | 0.0425 |

C45 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.62 | 1 | 0.428 | 0.0379 |

C46 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.43 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 1 | 0.513 | 0.0454 |

C47 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.55 | 0.77 | 1 | 0.473 | 0.0419 |

C51 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.72 | 1 | 0.495 | 0.0438 |

C52 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.53 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 1 | 0.539 | 0.0477 |

C53 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.80 | 1 | 0.513 | 0.0455 |

C54 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.34 | 0.52 | 0.76 | 1 | 0.454 | 0.0402 |

C55 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.42 | 0.70 | 1 | 0.434 | 0.0384 |

measurable index still need to be strengthened. In addition, the weight of Internet penetration rate C 31 , the degree of regional emergency information sharing C 33 , and government coordination capability C 52 are higher, so emergency logistics capability can be improved by enhancing these capabilities.

The following conclusions are drawn by the analysis and evaluation on Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability:

1) Fuzzy matter-element method is suitable for solving the quantitative and qualitative analysis, the calculation process is simple and clear, which can clearly reflect the impact of each index on regional emergency logistics capability.

2) Disaster relief materials reserve expenditure and Gross Regional Product are the main factors that influence on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region emergency logistics capability, regional emergency logistics level can be improved by increasing the reserves of relief supplies and improving the regional economic strength.

This work was supported by Beijing Social Science Fund Project (15JGB071) and Beijing Wuzi University high level scientific research project Foster fund projects (GJB20143006) and funding project for Youth Talent Cultivation Plan of Beijing City University Under the grant number (CIT & TCD201504051).

Ma, X.G., Liang, Y. and Yang, H.H. (2017) The Evaluation of Emergency Logistics Capability in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Fuzzy Matter-Element Analysis. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 5, 52-62. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2017.510005