The study assesses the effects of climate change on police operation in Delta state. To achieve this climate, data were extracted from the archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and the Met Station of the Department of Geography Delta State University Abraka, and police operation data were collected from the archive of the police diary at the state police headquarter. The results showed an evidence of climate change in delta state with a rise of 3 oC in temperature, and decadal rainfall increase of 120 mm; 56 mm and 121 mm in three epochs (1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2014). The first and last decades are wetter than the second epoch. There is a general increase in annual Police and vigilant operations from 1975 to 2014 and their operations are significantly dependent on increase in rainfall and rise in temperature. Thus increase in rainfall and rise in temperature bring corresponding reduction in police and local vigilante operations in the state. It therefore recommended that federal and state government should provide rain coat, safety boot, umbrella, good vehicles to police on duty; and police and vigilante should embark on regular patrol be it raining or sunny day. This is because crimes (breaking and entry, armed robbery etc.) increase when it is raining heavily.
Climate change threat and vulnerability did not only transcend one continent to another, but from one country to another, and even amongst communities. Despite its disproportionate impact over the world, most studies on climate change and security have originated from developed countries. Upon this regard, discussing security impacts of climate change in Nigeria is crucial, based partly on two factors. Firstly, the dynamics of its internal security and stability of Nigeria has regional and continental ramifications because Nigerian constitutes about 20% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa. Secondly, the country is bedevilled with high poverty and unemployment rate, wide income and gender inequality, prevalence of diseases (HIV/AIDS and malaria), endemic corruption, and the existence of separatist and militant groups, negative which are human development indices. This prevailing situation foregrounds much of the internal security complex and dynamics that climate change is set to trigger or exacerbate in Nigeria. Climate change has become one of the most challenging global issues facing humanity and certain urban characteristics that have relevance for understanding risks from climate and weather hazards [
The effect that changing weather conditions have on criminal and aggressive behaviour has long been a subject of interest both to scientists and the lay public. For instance weather hazards can triggers negative emotional responses’ [
It has been reported that when police suddenly leaves duty (that is the absence of police from checkpoints) there is likely to be an increase in crime [
Delta State being an oil producing state, with huge commercial development in Asaba, Warri, Ughelli, Sapele, Agbor and Abraka, has lead to increased population and urbanization problems of housing, migration, robbery, Kidnapping etc in the state. This has increase the state monetary involvement in security operation. Because security is still often considered as primarily responsibility of state and federal government, this misses the truth that insecurity is a personal experience characterized by absence: absence of protection; of paths to redress grievance; of fair access to resources; and of rights. These insecurities are barriers to development and contribute to cycles of violence that prevent people leading safe, fulfilling and dignified lives. And climate variability has played a significant role in the process of development of these problems in the state. Succinctly, climatic variation has an effect in the monetary policy on security and police activities. However, the underlying problems of climatic variation in Delta State are flooding, storms, increased precipitation and high temperature, and according to [
Similarly, another climatic problem in Delta State is low visibility which is beneficial to offensive and retrograde operations and detrimental to defensive operations. In the offense, it conceals the concentration of maneuver or friendly forces, thus enhancing the possibility of achieving the element of surprise. Low visibility hinders the defense because cohesion and control become difficult to maintain, reconnaissance and surveillance are impeded, and target acquisition is less accurate. Smoke and obscurant aerosols can be expected on medium-intensity to high-intensity battlefields and may be used locally to reduce visibility. In all operations, obscurants limit the use of aircraft and aerial optical and infrared surveillance devices. Also effort levels of police officers may change depending on weather. Officers in the hot condition reported more aggressive and threatening impressions of the suspect, and were more likely to draw their weapon and shoot the simulated suspect. Concisely, climate effects on crime cannot be undermined. For instance, when it is raining, police may not decide to do a foot patrol. The temperament of police officers may also be affected by scorching weather. Increased temperatures may increase police aggression resulting in more arrests. Despite the problems studies in this area have been grossed over, thus there is a relative neglect of establishing the relationship between climate and policing. Based on this problem and neglect this study assesses the effects of climate change on police operation in Delta state.
The data used for this study were extracted from the archives of the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Nigeria Police headquarter, diary of the State head of Vigilante in Asaba from 1975-2014. The choice of these years is based on consistence, continuity, availability and wiliness to release of police operation and vigilante’s data. Upon this same period of data was used for climate data. The climate data were collected from the archives of NIMET Warri, and MET Station of the Department of Geography and Regional Planning, Delta State University Abraka and were averaged and used for the study. Also field assistants who stayed close to area of checkpoints were used to obtain police and army checkpoints availability during rainy day and sunny day (see
checkpoints on the effects of rainfall and scorching weather on their activities. This corroborates [
The data obtained for the study are presented in Tables 1-10 and Figures 2-4, and discussed below.
temperature. This is also an evidence of climate change. Rainfall and temperature revealed 0.69 and 0.64 corre-lation value, both indicate an upward trend from 1975-2014. This however corroborated [
The mean annual deployment of police and vigilante to various street/roads in Delta state showed a general increase from 1975 to 2014 with annual mean of 712, 51 and 447 respectively for street/road patrol, police investigation and vigilante deployment (see
in police operation in the state. The increased according to the police officers interviewed is as a result of population increase over the years which precipitate increase in criminality in the state, as well as variation in rainfall and temperature over the years [
The monthly rainfall, temperature and police and vigilante operation are shown in
Generally high numbers of policemen were deployed for checkpoints under sunny days than a rainy day.
Months | Rainfall (mm) | Temp (˚C) | Vigilante on street | Highway patrol operation | Street patrol | Police investigation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
January | 21 | 29.2 | 864 | 62 | 221 | 49 |
February | 86 | 30.6 | 550 | 71 | 263 | 52 |
March | 67 | 30 | 459 | 65 | 266 | 55 |
April | 138 | 30.9 | 778 | 55 | 250 | 56 |
May | 209 | 30.5 | 655 | 42 | 140 | 56 |
June | 383 | 29.2 | 578 | 42 | 120 | 60 |
July | 411 | 29 | 360 | 33 | 109 | 45 |
August | 47 | 29.7 | 740 | 39 | 131 | 60 |
September | 421 | 28.6 | 340 | 32 | 82 | 46 |
October | 369 | 31.6 | 772 | 58 | 147 | 66 |
November | 67 | 30.8 | 880 | 61 | 322 | 75 |
December | 18 | 30.5 | 903 | 78 | 369 | 76 |
Roads | Rainy Day | Sunny Day |
---|---|---|
Agbor/Sapele | 3 | 15 |
Benin-Asaba | 1 | 11 |
Benin-Patani | 3 | 17 |
Ughelli-Asaba | 1 | 8 |
Asaba-Ilah | 1 | 5 |
Eku-Warri | 3 | 8 |
Total | 11 | 64 |
Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error of the Estimate |
---|---|---|---|---|
Street Patrol | 0.895 (a) | 0.802 | 0.758 | 45.61233 |
Highway Patrol | 0.793 | 0.628 | 0.545 | 10.25607 |
Police Investigation | 0.652 | 0.425 | 0.297 | 8.50612 |
(a) Predictors: (Constant), Temp, Rainfall.
Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | T | Sig. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Std. Error | Beta | B | Std. Error | ||
1 | (Constant) | −140.019 | 108.476 | −1.291 | 0.229 | |
Rainfall | −0.053 | 0.020 | −0.565 | −2.640 | 0.027 | |
Temp | 6.755 | 3.568 | 0.405 | 1.893 | 0.091 |
(a) Dependent Variable: Highway Patrol.
Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | T | Sig. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Std. Error | Beta | B | Std. Error | ||
1 | (Constant) | −627.879 | 620.411 | −1.012 | 0.338 | |
Rainfall | −0.384 | 0.114 | −0.677 | −3.370 | 0.008 | |
Temp | 29.987 | 20.405 | 0.295 | 1.470 | 0.176 |
(a) Dependent Variable: Street Patrol.
Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | T | Sig. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Std. Error | Beta | B | Std. Error | ||
1 | (Constant) | −128.902 | 89.967 | −1.433 | 0.186 | |
Rainfall | −0.012 | 0.017 | −0.190 | −0.714 | 0.493 | |
Temp | 6.293 | 2.959 | 0.566 | 2.127 | 0.062 |
(a) Dependent Variable: Police investigation.
Model | R | R Square | Adjusted R Square | Std. Error of the Estimate |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.736(a) | 0.542 | 0.441 | 148.48042 |
(a) Predictors: (Constant), Temp, Rainfall.
Variables | Vigilante | Rainfall | Temp | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Pearson Correlation | Vigilante | 1.000 | 0.768 | −0.692 |
Rainfall | −0.768 | 1.000 | −0.842 | |
Temp | −0.692 | −0.842 | 1.000 |
Model | Unstandardized Coefficients | Standardized Coefficients | T | Sig. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Std. Error | Beta | B | Std. Error | ||
1 | (Constant) | 3388.743 | 1697.693 | 1.996 | 0.077 | |
Rainfall | −0.647 | 0.625 | −0.557 | −1.035 | 0.327 | |
Temp | −76.661 | 47.908 | −0.861 | −1.600 | 0.144 |
(a) Dependent Variable: Vigilante.
Climate factors | Yes | No |
---|---|---|
Heavy rainfall | 18 (100%) | |
High sunshine | 17 (94%) | 1 (6%) |
Scorching temp 12 - 2 pm | 18 (100%) | |
Flooding | 15 (83%) | 3 (17%) |
Gullies | 13 (72%) | 5 (28%) |
High dew | 15 (83%) | 3 (17%) |
partments may have already observed the relationship between weather and crime and adjusted police presence accordingly. If the police presence is consistently higher in finer weather, we would expect this to result in fewer crimes occurring as criminals acknowledge the increased probability of being caught, but this is not so in Delta State Second, effort levels of police officers may change depending on weather. Officers in the hot condition reported more aggressive and threatening impressions of the suspect, and were more likely to draw their weapon and shoot the simulated suspect. Succinctly, climate variability and crime cannot be undermined. For example, if it is raining, police may not decide to do a foot patrol. The temperament of police officers may also be affected by weather. Increased temperatures may increase police aggression resulting in more arrests [
The study showed an evidence of climate change in delta state with a rise of 3˚C in temperature, and decadal rainfall increase of 120 mm; 56 mm and 121 mm in three epochs (1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2014). However, the first and last decades are wetter than the second epoch. Police and vigilant operations experience a gradual increase from 1975 to 2014, and their operations are significantly dependent on increase in rainfall and rise in temperature. It’s therefore recommended that the federal and state government should provide rain coat, safety boot, umbrella, good vehicles to police and vigilantes on duty; and police officers and vigilantes should embark on regular patrol be it raining or sunny day. This will aid their effective operation when it is raining and during scorching period.
Sunday I.Efe,AlexEyefia, (2015) Climate Change Effects on Policing in Delta State, Nigeria. Open Journal of Social Sciences,03,103-111. doi: 10.4236/jss.2015.35015