TITLE:
Non-Linear Influence Mechanism of County New Urbanisation on Resilience of the Agricultural Economy
AUTHORS:
Boyuan Tian, Shiqi Deng, Longlong Duan
KEYWORDS:
County New Urbanisation, Agricultural Economic Resilience, Non-Linear Model, Technological Innovation
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.16 No.9,
September
23,
2025
ABSTRACT: As the foundation of the national economy, the stable and healthy development of agriculture is directly linked to sustained economic growth and long-term social stability. Strengthening the resilience of the agricultural economy and ensuring its robustness in the face of shocks is of great significance to guarantee China’s food security, help rural revitalisation, promote China’s agricultural modernisation and achieve the goal of constructing a strong agricultural country. However, existing studies have paid extensive attention to the linear effect of county new urbanisation on the resilience of the agricultural economy. Few of them have cut in from a non-linear perspective. This paper empirically examines the non-linear effect, mediating mechanism, regulating mechanism and threshold effect of county new urbanisation on agricultural resilience with the help of the county new urbanisation pilot policy, using the data of 2039 counties in China from 2008 to 2022. The results found that there is a U-shaped relationship between county new urbanisation and agricultural resilience, which can improve agricultural economic resilience within a specific interval. The mechanism test shows that upgrading technological innovation is an important mechanism to enhance the resilience of agricultural economy. Financial development as a moderating variable enhances the impact of county urbanisation on agricultural resilience. The heterogeneity test shows that county new urbanisation has a more significant effect on county-level cities and more economically developed regions in enhancing agricultural economic resilience. This paper provides intellectual support for the in-depth promotion of county new urbanisation to further enhance the resilience of the agricultural economy, promote the development of agricultural and rural modernisation with Chinese characteristics, and build a modern and powerful country.