TITLE:
EVD Outbreak-2014: Burden of the Disease and Comprehensive Steps in Preventing the Epidemic
AUTHORS:
Saddam Hossain, Sumaiya Akter, Mhamud Hasan
KEYWORDS:
EVD, SIR, Basic Reproduction Number, Mathematical Modeling, GDP, Epidemic
JOURNAL NAME:
Applied Mathematics,
Vol.8 No.8,
August
21,
2017
ABSTRACT: As of December 2nd 2015, a total of 28,601 cases have been reported with
11,300 reported deaths (not including cases where the outcome is unknown)
during the current outbreak of ebola virus disease (EVD). In this paper, we
mainly focus on the transmission of ebola virus disease, estimate the burden
of the disease and the persistent nature by finding the basic reproduction
number, and analyze the comprehensive steps to control the virulent disease.
We have considered three mostly affected countries, Guinea, Liberia, and
Sierra Leone respectively and collected data from various sources are used to
surmise the present and future nature of the disease. Being the poorest country
in the world like Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, they do not have efficient
policies to fight against such kind of endemic and they have been unable
to control the spread of the disease. We have found some real facts that increase
the chances to be infected by this virulent disease. Since the reproduction
number R0 is still above unity and if we do not take precautionary steps
and work accordingly then the disease will definitely exist in the community
and the burden of the disease would increase continuously.