TITLE:
Speed Limit and Fatalities in the U.S.: Implication for Transportation Policy
AUTHORS:
Kashif Zaheer Malik, Ammar Aftab
KEYWORDS:
Transportation, Time-Series, SVAR, Speed Limit, Accidents
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.7 No.5,
August
11,
2017
ABSTRACT:
The paper attempts to investigate into the prevalent notion that higher speed
limits lead to increase in fatalities using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model
for bivariate time series. The paper used Fatality Analysis Reporting System
(FARS) time series data set from 1975 to 2010. The paper is the first one to
make use of Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) on this time series dataset to
study the potential dual causality between speed and fatalities. The results of
the paper partially support the causation between speed limit and fatalities,
thus, complementing the results of the existing literature relating speed limits
and fatalities such as “Influence of speed limits on roadway safety in Indiana” [1], “Driver Speed Behavior on US Streets” [2], and “Speed Limit Laws in
America: Economics, Politics and Geography” [3]. However, instead of determining
causation through various regression models, the paper establishes
the causality by inducing a speed shock and analyses its impact upon fatalities.
The paper concludes that in states with higher per capita automobiles and limited
public transportation facilities such as Georgia, a sudden increase in
speed limit has an immediate and higher impact upon accident related deaths,
whereas, in states with lower per capita automobiles and higher public transportation
services such as New York, the sudden increase of speed limit has
minimal impact on accident related fatalities.