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http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.029

has been cited by the following article:

• TITLE: Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios

  AUTHORS: Sin Chan Chou, André Lyra, Caroline Mourão, Claudine Dereczynski, Isabel Pilotto, Jorge Gomes, Josiane Bustamante, Priscila Tavares, Adan Silva, Daniela Rodrigues, Diego Campos, Diego Chagas, Gustavo Sueiro, Gracielle Siqueira, José Marengo

  KEYWORDS: South America, Climate Downscaling, Climate Change Assessment, Climatic Extreme Indicators, Eta Model

  JOURNAL NAME: American Journal of Climate Change, Vol.3 No.5, December 31, 2014

  ABSTRACT: Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.