TITLE:
China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Development Status Quo and Trade Effect Analysis
AUTHORS:
Changze Wang
KEYWORDS:
CAFCA, Trade Creation Effect, Trade Diversion Effect
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.9 No.4,
April
24,
2018
ABSTRACT: From the starting of CAFTA in 2002, the economic and
trade contact between China and ASEAN has
become increasingly frequent. Both sides have achieved good development, which actively promoted
the development of free trade area. First of all, this paper introduces the
current situation of trade of China-ASEAN
Free Trade Area, including the general situation of trade of China and ASEAN,
the balance trade of China and ASEAN and key trade industry between China and
ASEAN. And secondly, this paper analyzes the Trade Creation Effects through the
share of Chinese exports to ASEAN in Chinese total export volume, which finds
that the proportion of Chinese exports to ASEAN has increased steadily and that
generated a certain trade creation effects. And also the paper analyzes the
outside trade diversion effect through the share of Chinese imports and exports
with ASEAN in China’s total trades, which
shows that China has also created a certain extent Trade Diversion Effect. What’s
more, this paper selects the data from China, ASEAN countries and China’s important trade partners, and establishes the panel
data from 2003 to 2016. It carries on an empirical analysis on China’s trade creation effect by
using the econometric model. Finally, this article puts forward some promoting development
countermeasures of China-ASEAN free trade area by the obstacles in the
developing process of CAFTA at present, according to the study results.