TITLE:
Measuring and Comparing the Value-at-Risk Using GARCH and CARR Models for CSI 300 Index
AUTHORS:
Chunchou Wu
KEYWORDS:
VaR, CARR, GARCH, Volatility Forecasting
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.8 No.6,
April
23,
2018
ABSTRACT: This article is the first to provide a detailed
method for range-based CARR model to estimate the VaR and its out-of-sample
prediction. In this paper, we use GARCH and CARR volatility models to compare
the VaR’s out-of-sample forecasting performance. Using the historical
simulation method as benchmark for VaR estimation, we found that the historical
simulation approach for VaR measurement is more conservative than GARCH and
CARR methods. The mean violation rate for the CARR VaRs is lower than that of
the GARCH VaRs. Meanwhile, the CARR VaR is able to deliver lower required
capital levels without producing bigger violations. This paper argued that the
CARR VaR valuation approach is suitable as an internal model method for
financial institution in VaR forecasting.