TITLE:
Seasonal Adjustment of the Consumer Price Index
AUTHORS:
Tianyi Zhang
KEYWORDS:
CPI, Seasonal Adjustment, Spring Festival, Mobile Holiday, X-13-ARIMA-SEATS
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.5 No.3,
March
13,
2017
ABSTRACT: This paper firstly introduces the significance of seasonal adjustments of the consumer price index (CPI). Then this paper focuses on the theory of seasonal adjustments and the ARIMA model with regression. Based on X-13 ARIMA-SEATS program, we develop a statistically robust method to conduct seasonal adjustment on China’s monthly CPI with respect to moving holidays, especially, Chinese Spring Festival. It is demonstrated that seasonally adjusted CPI time series are more sensitive and conducive to monitor the macro economy.