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has been cited by the following article:

• TITLE: Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Using a Deterministic Distributed Hydrological Model in Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Aghien Lagoon

  AUTHORS: Wa Kouakou Charles N’Dri, Séverin Pistre, Jean Patrice Jourda, Kan Jean Kouamé

  KEYWORDS: Abidjan, Climate Change, Côte d’Ivoire, Aghien Lagoon, SWAT

  JOURNAL NAME: Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Vol.7 No.7, July 26, 2019

  ABSTRACT: This work aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the quantitative availability of the Aghien lagoon located in the north of the Abidjan district in Cô ;te d’Ivoire. In the first step, the semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) based physical model (Arnold et al., 1998) was calibrated and validated at the monthly time step over the period 1960-1981, in the Me watershed for which data from flow rates are available. SWAT was then applied on the watershed of the lagoon of Aghien which is ungauged but for which the challenges are considerable for the drinking water supply of the Abidjanese population. In the second step, the gross outputs (precipitation, temperatures) of six climate models of the CORDEX-Africa project under the “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) scenarios were corrected using the delta method. These corrected outputs were used at the SWAT model input to project the impact of climate change on the flow of the Aghien lagoon to horizons 2040 (2035-2056), 2060 (2057-2078) and 2080 (2079-2100). The projections made on these different horizons were compared with the simulated flow over the period 1960-1981. The results show a sensible decrease in the annual flow of the Aghien lagoon compared to the reference period (1960-1981). Under the medium assumption (RCP 4.5), the models predict a decrease in the annual discharge almost 10% on average. Under the pessimistic hypothesis (RCP 8.5), the average annual discharge should decrease by more than 17%. On a monthly basis, flows in August and September would increase by more than 80% and those in October and November would increase by more than 20% in both RCP scenarios.