TITLE:
Interpretation of EC Fine Grid Numerical Prediction Products in the Forecast of Frozen Fog in Urumqi Airport
AUTHORS:
Hongru Yang, Nan Wang, Yulin Qin, Dawei Fan
KEYWORDS:
Airport Freezing Fog, Forecast Product Release, Classification Prediction
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.6 No.9,
September
10,
2018
ABSTRACT: In this paper, Urumqi Airport time-lapse ground man-made observation data
from November 2015 to February 2017, European fine grid (0.25 × 0.25) initial
field (20 o’clock) and the forecast field within 24 hours were utilized.
From November 2015 to February 2016, the relevant materials were used as
research samples (a total of 948 times), and from November 2016 to February
2017 as test samples (a total of 922 times), statistical methods were used to
establish the scoring standards. And each relevant element was scored. After
the score, the score level range was delineated, and the visibility forecast was
performed according to the scope. The conclusions are as follows: 1) European
fine grid forecast products are with good correspondence with the visibility
of this field are 850 hPa and 2 m high temperature inversion, 850 hPa
relative humidity and 850 hPa wind field over the field. 2) Through the statistical
analysis of scores, it is defined that the score below 400 is level 4, the
score above 1000 is level 1, the difference is significant, and the forecast indication
is strong. Level 2 and level 3 are more evenly distributed, with no more
concentrated fractions. 3) Applying the test sample to test the above indicators.
The forecast accuracy of level 1 is 61.2%, and the forecast accuracy of
level 4 is 97.2%, so level 1 and level 4 are expected to obtain better forecast
results, which is of practical application value.