TITLE:
Application and Verification of Multi-Model Products in Medium Range Forecast
AUTHORS:
Rong Yao, Zhiming Kang, Yong Li, Xiangning Cai
KEYWORDS:
Model, Verification, Medium-Range Forecast, Deviation
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.6 No.7,
July
31,
2018
ABSTRACT: The verification analysis is applied to medium-range forecast products of T639, ECMWF, Japan model, NCEP ensemble forecast and NMC multi-model integration in late October 2012. The results show that ECMWF model has obvious advantage over other models in terms of height field and precipitation forecast; the westerly-wind index, geostrophic U wind and 850 hPa temperature prediction products can reflect the adjustment of atmospheric circulation and the activity of cold air, which have a good reference for the medium-range temperature forecast in the eastern China; the prediction of ECMWF height field and wind field can well grasp the main weather processes within 192 h, but beyond 192 h the model forecast ability decreases significantly; different models have large deviations in the medium-range forecast of typhoon track and the intensity and range of typhoon precipitation.