TITLE:
Forecast and Opportunity Analysis of Cold Chain Logistics Demand of Fresh Agricultural Products under the Integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei
AUTHORS:
Tongjuan Liu, Songmiao Li, Shaobo Wei
KEYWORDS:
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Integration, Strategic Combination, Demand Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing, Circulation System
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.5 No.10,
October
13,
2017
ABSTRACT:
This paper is based on the national strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration. At first, we make strategy analysis on the development of cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products, using the PEST analysis model to analyze the macro environment and SWOT analysis model to distinguish strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats it faced now meticulously, then we discuss the development strategy combination under the integration of the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Secondly, we analyze the cold chain logistics demand of fresh agricultural products in view of the integration of the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the fresh agricultural products categories. The exponential smoothing is used to forecast first, then the secondary exponential smoothing model is set up to make the fitting figure with the actual and predicted value. In addition, we forecast the output in the next few years and analyze the results. Finally, combining with the development strategy combination and prediction analysis, we put forward the development pattern and give a prospect of fresh agricultural products cold chain logistics.