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Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, (Copyright Angus Maddison). XLS File Downloadable from Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita.

has been cited by the following article:

  • TITLE: Fair Plan 9: Engineering Human Population to Help Safeguard Earth’s Climate

    AUTHORS: Michael E. Schlesinger

    KEYWORDS: Climate Change, Fair Plan, Population Engineering, Total Fertility Rate

    JOURNAL NAME: Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Vol.6 No.2, April 29, 2016

    ABSTRACT: Our Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate reduces the emission of greenhouse gases to zero over the 80-year time period 2020 to 2100. To accomplish this, humanity must reduce its carbon intensity—the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of energy—and its energy intensity—the amount of energy needed to generate a unit of Gross World Product. As shown in our Fair Plan 8 paper, reducing the future growth of the human population can also contribute to the reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions. Here, we explore this further. We project the historical decrease in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across the 21st century toward its logistical asymptotic Reference value of 2.04 Births Per Woman (BPW). We then engineer the asymptotic TFR beginning in 2020 to 1.95, 1.85, 1.75, 1.65 & 1.55 BPW. We project the population across the 21st century for the Reference and engineered TFRs. We do so using the results of Basten, Lutz and Scherbov (2013) for the population evolution across the 21st century for 8 constant TFR values (=2.50, 2.25, 2.00, 1.75, 1.50, 1.25, 1.00 & 0.75 BPW). We find that purposefully engineering the asymptotic TFR can significantly contribute to achieving the reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions needed to transition to our Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate.