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Allen, M.R. and Ingram, W.J. (2002) Constraints on Future Changes in Climate and the Hydrological Cycle. Nature, 419, 224-232. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01092

has been cited by the following article:

  • TITLE: Hurricane Camille 1969 and Storm-Triggered Landslides in the Appalachians and a Perspective in a Warmer Climate

    AUTHORS: Diandong Ren

    KEYWORDS: Extreme Precipitation, Climate Change, Landslides, Flash Floods, Endemic Salamanders to Appalachians, Ecosystem in Mountains, Tropical Cyclone Remnants and Extra-Tropical Transition, SEGMENT-Landslide, Blue Mountain Ecosystem

    JOURNAL NAME: International Journal of Geosciences, Vol.7 No.1, January 29, 2016

    ABSTRACT: This study analyzes storm-triggered landslides in the US Appalachians, in the current geological setting. Concave valleys that favor the convergence of surface runoff are the primary locales for landslides. If the slopes are weathered to the same degree and have the same vegetation coverage, slope orientation (azimuthal) is not critical for slope stability. However, it is found that for the region south of the Black Mountains (North Carolina), north-facing slopes are more prone to slide, because, for the regions not limited by water availability (annual precipitation), the northern slopes usually are grass slopes. For the slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains, south facing slopes are more prone to slide. Gravity measurements over the past decade reveal that geological conditions, the chute system and underground cracks over the region are stable. Future changes in storm-triggered landslide frequency are primarily controlled by changes in extreme precipitation. Thus, a series of ensemble climate model experiments is carried out to investigate possible changes in future extreme precipitation events, using a weather model forced by atmospheric perturbations from ensemble climate models. Over 50 locations are identified as prone to future landslides. Many of these locales are natural habitats to the Appalachian salamanders. In a future warmer climate, more severe extreme precipitation events are projected because of increased atmospheric water vapor and more frequent passages of tropical cyclone remnants. There is also a likely shift of tropical cyclone tracks and associated extreme precipitations, and the cluster center of Appalachians’s scarps is expected to move westward, with ecological consequences for the endemic salamanders.