TITLE:
Modelling the Impact of Stages of HIV Progression on Estimates
AUTHORS:
Angelina Mageni Lutambi
KEYWORDS:
HIV Stages, Transmission, Mathematical Model, Population Dynamics, Model Estimates
JOURNAL NAME:
Advances in Infectious Diseases,
Vol.5 No.3,
September
16,
2015
ABSTRACT: HIV/AIDS is a public
health problem especially in sub-Saharan Africa where majority of infections
and deaths occur. Despite the large number of studies and efforts made in
covering the data gap using mathematical models, little is known on how model
estimates are confounded by the transmission variabilities that exist in stages
of HIV progression. This work investigates the impact of including stages of
HIV transmission in HIV/AIDS models. A deterministic HIV/AIDS model is developed
and extended to include stages of HIV progression of infected individuals.
Theoretical investigation of the models and numerical analyses indicate that
the two models produce different estimates, with the model without stages
producing lower estimates than the staged model. These results call for a
careful consideration in evaluating the efficiency of HIV/AIDS models that are
used to estimate and project the burden of HIV/AIDS disease.