Study on Globalization of Shipping Stocks Pricing Based on a DC-MSV Model on of Based on a

DC-MSV and GC-MSV models are established to study the dynamic correlation and risk spillover effects among domestic and foreign shipping stocks price for the evaluation of pricing globalization. The empirical analysis adopting MCMC algorithm shows that the dynamic correlations rose between A stocks and their H counterparty index and shipping stocks, which relate to the gradually opening up investment threshold. However, the dynamic correlations did not go up between domestic shipping stocks and their oversea counterparties. A shipping stocks’ price is Granger cause of their H stocks and the forward risk spillover effects are stronger, which means shipping stocks are mainly priced in domestic market. Further opening up will make China a global shipping asset pricing center, following the global shipbuilding and shipping center.


Research Background
A-share investment continued to open to the outside world, especially the interconnection policy, which strengthened the linkage between A-shares, Hong Kong stocks and US stocks, and promoted the global pricing of A-shares. The flow of funds between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has become an important factor affecting the rise and fall of the stock prices of the two cities, and is an important tracking indicator for investors. However, most AH stocks still have valuation differences. The rise and fall of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks and US stocks are not in sync, and the ups and downs are even more different, indi-cating that the globalization of A-share pricing is still in the process of gradual progress.
In order to study the globalization of A-share pricing, it is necessary to analyze the linkage relationship between stocks at home and abroad, and the predecessors have done a lot of research on this. The study measures the linkage level of stock markets at home and abroad from the initial static correlation and risk spillover effects [1], turning to dynamic correlation to evaluate the evolution of linkage relationship [2], then analyzes the impact of major investment open policy on the sudden change of linkage structure [3], especially the evolution of the linkage between Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [4], to assess the effectiveness of the policies. But the evolution of the linkage is also affected by multiple factors, for example, global economic crisis [5], A-share stock disaster [6], changes of interest rates and exchange rates [7] etc. These factors affect the global stock market's rise and fall through profit, interest rate, risk appetite and so on. In addition, in order to better fit the linkage relationship, the study shifts from linear to nonlinear [3]; risk spillover effect research shifts from symmetric spillover to asymmetric spillover [8]. In the research object, the main focus is on the linkage between international stock markets [5], the linkage between domestic and overseas stock markets [1], especially the linkage between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. [7] [9] [10]; the research target shifts from the general index to the industry [9].

Research Method
In terms of research methods, models such as GARCH, Copula, VAR, and double difference are mainly used. These studies provide useful references for financial market opening, market risk transmission, and global stock investment. But these studies ignore the underlying causes of global stock market linkages, which can lead to erroneous methods and sample selection. The stock price is determined by the combination of profit and discount rate. The financial capital flow makes the discount rate convergence, thus promoting the stock price linkage. However, the differentiation of earnings may also lead to the weakening of stock price linkage. Therefore, it is necessary to select assets with global profit changes as the research object. At the same time, global capital flows are an expected and gradual process, especially in countries where financial markets are gradually opening up. This has led to a gradual evolution of linkages rather than static or structural abrupt changes. In addition, combined with the price-guided relationship and risk spillover effects, the impact of open investment on A-share pricing can be analyzed and evaluated.
This study selects shipping companies with global convergence (global management, global pricing, high profitability and price), using DC-MSV and GC-MSV models to analyze the price linkage evolution process and risks of A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US-related companies. Spillover effect, explore the gradual process of globalization of A-share pricing. ( ) The overall earnings changes of listed companies at home and abroad may not converge. As far as the entire market is concerned, there are differences in earnings fluctuations due to the different macroeconomic environment and economic structure. Only when the macro environment changes drastically will earnings changes converge, such as financial crises. As far as the industry is concerned, market fragmentation and trade barriers lead to differences in profitability. Only a few industries with global operations and strong cycles will achieve the same profit, which is the ideal target for studying the global evolution of stock market pricing.

GC-MSV and DC-MSV Model
Financial markets typically use ARCH and SV models to analyze asset price correlations and risk spillovers. GU & LU [11] has proved DCC-GARCH model can be used in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Information Spillover Effects and Dynamic Correlation. However, the SV model has two random perturbation terms, which is more suitable for volatility than the , according to the DIC criterion, a distribution hypothesis with a good fitting effect is selected; matrix of volatility persistence coefficients, examining volatility persistence and volatility spillover effect; ( ) GC-MSV model can be shown as below:   Table 2 shows some of the parameters estimation results. The MC error of all models is much smaller than the standard error, indicating that the parameter estimation results converge. The edge posterior distribution kernel density estimation curves of each parameter are smooth and have obvious single-peak symmetry characteristics, indicating that the error of the parameter Bayesian estimation value is small.  Holding AH stocks yields were iterated 100,000 times and burn the first 20,000

Linkage between AH Stock Index and Shipping Stocks
times. Some parameter estimation results are shown in Table 3. All model parameter estimation results converge, and the error of the parameter Bayesian estimation value is small.

Linkage between a Stock and Foreign Shipping Stocks
To study the globalization of A-share pricing, it is necessary to study the rela-

Dynamic Correlation Analysis
AH stock pricing is gradually getting in line. According to the DC-MSV model parameter estimation results, the dynamic correlation coefficient of the AH stock index return rate is shown in Figure 1. The correlation coefficient of AH shares is between 0.4 and 0.9, indicating that there is a strong positive correlation. The correlation coefficient shows an upward trend, indicating that A-share pricing is gradually aligning with Hong Kong in Figure 1. The correlation coefficient is on the rise and is closely related to economic  In Figure 3, the dynamic correlation between A-share container shipping stocks, there is no upward trend in the correlation between A-shares and overseas shipping stocks. In the transportation sector, the dynamic relationship among COSCO Shipping Development before the reorganization with OOCL and Maersk has not been improved. Neither the dynamic relationship among COSCO Shipping Holding after the reorganization with OOCL and Maersk.
In the bulk sector, the correlation between COSCO Shipping Development and Star Bulk, which is shown in Figure 4 either representative domestic and foreign companies, has not improved. In terms of oil transportation, the correlation between the representative domestic and foreign companies, the China Merchant Steamship and Frontline has not increased. This is related to the inability

Analyses on Volatility Spillover Effects
The spillover effects between AH stocks index and three sample shipping companies in A/H stocks are shown in and 2018 to study the changes in risk correlation and volatility spillover effects.
It is found that from 2008 to 2018, the correlation between AH stock index and

Results of Analysis
The four sections of this chapter have studied the relationship between the AH market and shipping stocks, the impact of the linkage between the A-share market and the H-share market itself, the relationship between A-share shipping stocks and the same company in the H-share market, Similar correspondence between foreign shipping stocks. The first section is to study the volatility spillover effect between the AH market and shipping stocks, that is, the impact on the latter's risk. It turns out, the dynamic correlation between AH stock index and shipping AH stocks is on the rise, which is gradually opening to A-share investment.
The second section compares the sensitivity of A-share and H-share markets to stock price fluctuations. However, the correlation between A-shares and overseas shipping stocks has not increased, which is related to the restriction of domestic and foreign stock investment.
The third section compares the performance of the shares of the same company in A shares and H shares, and explores the effect of the A-share market and H share market on the same company's performance feedback to the stock price, as well as the degree of influence of between the performance and stock price of shipping companies of different business types. It turns out that the A-share yield is the Granger causality of H-shares, and the risk spillover effect is higher.
The pricing power of shipping stocks is mainly in A share.

Conclusions
In order to study the globalization of A-share pricing, the DC-MSV and GC-MSV models were established to analyze the dynamic correlation and risk spillover effects of the stock prices of domestic and overseas companies in the process of opening up China's capital market. The MCMC algorithm is used to empirically study the share price data of AH shares and domestic and foreign shipping stocks. According to the results of analysis in chapter 3, it is found that: First, the dynamic correlation between AH stock index and shipping AH stocks is on the rise, which is gradually opening to A-share investment. Secondly, the correlation between A-shares and overseas shipping stocks has not increased, which is related to the restriction of domestic and foreign stock investment.
Third, the A-share yield is the Granger causality of H-shares, and the risk spillover effect is higher. The pricing power of shipping stocks is mainly in A-shares.
Fourth, A-shares should be further opened for investment, making China a global shipping asset pricing center after the global shipbuilding and shipping center.
Considering the above four results, we can further conclude that the invest-

Conflicts of Interest
The author declares no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.