Optimizing the PMCC Algorithm for Infrasound and Seismic Nuclear Treaty Monitoring

Anthony M. Runco Jr.¹, James A. Louthain², Dean A. Clauter³

¹Space and Missile Systems Center, United States Air Force, Los Angeles Air Force Base, El Segundo, CA, USA.
²Leidos Inc., Beavercreek, OH, USA.
³Air Force Technical Applications Center, United States Air Force, Patrick Air Force Base, Cocoa Beach, FL, USA.

DOI: 10.4236/oja.2014.44020                

Abstract

We introduce novel methods to determine optimum detection thresholds for the Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) algorithm used by the International Data Centre (IDC) to perform infrasound and seismic station-level nuclear-event detection. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis is used with real ground truth data to determine the trade-off between the probability of detection (P_D) and the false alarm rate (FAR) at various detection thresholds. Further, statistical detection theory via maximum a posteriori and Bayes cost approaches is used to determine station-level optimum “family” size thresholds before detections should be considered for network-level processing. These threshold-determining methods are extensible for family-characterizing statistics other than “size,” such as a family’s collective F-statistic or signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Therefore, the reliability of analysts’ decisions as to whether families should be preserved for network-level processing can only benefit from access to multiple, independent, optimum decision thresholds based upon size, F-statistic, SNR, etc.

Keywords

Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation, PMCC, Infrasound, Nuclear Treaty Monitoring, Detection Optimization

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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