Climate Change Index: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Susceptibility to Future Climatic Extremes

Manyu Chang^1*, Claudine Dereczynski², Marcos A. V. Freitas¹, Sin Chan Chou³

¹International Virtual Institute of Global Change (IVIG), COPPE-UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
²Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
³Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research, National Institute of Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil.

DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.33029                

Abstract

A Climate Change Index (CCI) was designed to assess the degree of susceptibility to the climatic extremes projected for the future. Climate projections for the period 2041-2070 are extracted from the numerical integrations of INPE’s Eta-HadCM3 model, using the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Five indicators were chosen to represent the climatic extremes: Total annual precipitation, precipitation on the days of heavy rain, the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the year and the annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures. The methodology was applied to the state of Paraná. The results point to a very strong warming in 99% of the municipalities, with temperature increases between 6 and 8 times greater than the variance observed in the present climate. On the other hand, projections of precipitation do not indicate major changes in relation to present behavior.

Keywords

Climate Extremes, Index, Climate Change

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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