In Search of Prediction Factors for Autism Spectrum Disorders:An Impossible Task?


Clinical work and prediction of development are closely linked in the practice of early detection, diagnosis and choice of modes of intervention in young children with autism. Variables are often defined in terms of risk factors or of development, and may refer to general or specific phenomena. The purpose of this paper was, using a generalized mixed model, to test ways of measuring development and its prediction regarding joint attention (that is to say, response to and initiation of joint attention) in children with autism. Over a period of one year, seventy-seven children were followed from the age of four and a half years upwards. The results show that it is possible to identify general risk factors, but much more difficult to pinpoint specific factors. In our current state of knowledge, prediction can only be of a global nature and therefore requires the use of general markers.

Share and Cite:

Pry, R. , Petersen, A. & Baghdadli, A. (2012). In Search of Prediction Factors for Autism Spectrum Disorders:An Impossible Task?. Psychology, 3, 997-1003. doi: 10.4236/psych.2012.311150.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


[1] Baghdadli, A. (2005). Recommandations pour la pratique profession nelle du diagnostic de l’autisme. Fédération fran?aise de Psychiatrie. Haute Autorité de Santé, Paris, Saint-Denis la Plaine: FFP; HAS.
[2] Baron-Cohen, S. (1989). Joint attention deficits in autism: Towards a cognitive analysis. Development and Psychopathology, 1, 185-189. doi:10.1017/S0954579400000377
[3] Baron-Cohen, S., Wheelwright, S., Cox A., Baird, G., Charman, T., Swettenham, J., Drew, A., & Doehring, P. (2000). Early identifica tion of autism by the Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (CHAT). Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 93, 521-525.
[4] Breslow, N. E., & Clayton, D. G. (1993). Approximate inference in generalized linear mixed models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 9-25. doi:10.2307/2290687
[5] Carter, A. S., Volkmar, F. R., Sparrow, S. S., Wang, J. J., Lord, C., Dawson, G. et al. (1998). The vineland adaptive behavior scales: Supplementary norms for individuals with autism. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 28, 287-302. doi:10.1023/A:1026056518470
[6] Charman, T. (2002). The prevalence of autism spectrum disorders. Recent evidence and future challenges. European Child and Adoles cence Psychiatry, 11, 249-256. doi:10.1007/s00787-002-0297-8
[7] Esbensen, A. J., Seltzer, M. M., Lam, K. S., & Bodfish, J. W. (2009). Age-related differences in repetitive behaviors in autism spectrum Disorders. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 39, 57 66. doi:10.1007/s10803-008-0599-x
[8] Fitzmaurice, G. M., Laird, N. M., & Ware, J. H. (2004). Applied longi tudinal analysis. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Interscience.
[9] Fombonne, E. (2009). Epidemiology of pervasive developmental dis orders. Pediatric Research, 65, 591-598. doi:10.1203/PDR.0b013e31819e7203
[10] Fombonne, E., & Achard, S. (1993). The vineland adaptive behavior scale in a sample of normal french children: A research note. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 34, 1051-1058. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7610.1993.tb01108.x
[11] Fournier, K. A., Hass, C. J., Naik, S. K., Lodha, N., & Cauraugh, J. H. (2010). Motor coordination in autism spectrum disorders: A synthe sis and meta-analysis. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disor ders, 40, 1227-1240. doi:10.1007/s10803-010-0981-3
[12] Freeman, B., Delhomme, M., Guthrie, D., & Zhang, F. (1999). Vineland adaptive behaviour scale scores as a function of age and initial iq in 210 autistic children. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 29, 379-384. doi:10.1023/A:1023078827457
[13] Guidetti, M., & Tourrette, C. (1993). Evaluation de la communication sociale précoce ecsp. Issy-Les-Moulineaux: Editions Scientifiques et Psychologiques.
[14] Jones, E. A., & Carr, E. G. (2004). Joint attention in children with au tism: Theory and intervention. Focus on Autism and Other Develop mental Disabilities, 19, 13-26. doi:10.1177/10883576040190010301
[15] Lawer, L., Brusilovsliy, E., Salzer, M. S., & Mandell, D. S. (2009). Use the vocational rehabilitative services among adults with autism. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 39, 487-494. doi:10.1007/s10803-008-0649-4
[16] Lord, C., Risi, S., Lambrecht, L., Cook Jr., E. H., Leventhal, B. L., DiLavore, P. C., Pickles, A., & Rutter, M. (2000). The autism diag nostic observation schedule-generic: A standard measure of social and communicative deficits associated with the spectrum of autism. Journal of Autism Developmental Disorders, 30, 205-223.
[17] Lord, C., Rutter, M., & Le Couteur, A. (1994). Autism diagnostic inter view revised: A revised version of a diagnostic interview for care givers of individuals with possible pervasive developmental disor ders. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 24, 659-685.
[18] Mawhood, L., Howlin, P., & Rutter, M. (2003). Autism and develop mental receptive language disorder: a comparative follow-up in early adult life. I: Cognitive and language outcomes. Journal of Child Psy chology and Psychiatry, 41, 547-559. doi:10.1111/1469-7610.00642
[19] Montreuil, N., & Magerotte, G. (1994). Pratique de l’intervention individualisée. Bruxelles: De Boeck.
[20] Mundy, P. (2007). Attention, joint attention, and social cognition. Cur rent Directions in Psychological Science, 16, 269-274. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8721.2007.00518.x
[21] Nadel, J. (2009). Où est le développement dans le syndrome develop mental d’autisme? Enfance, 1, 101-108. doi:10.4074/S0013754509001128
[22] Nichols, K. E., Fox, N., & Mundy, P. (2005). Joint attention, self-recognition, and neurogognitive function in todlers. Infancy, 7, 35-51. doi:10.1207/s15327078in0701_4
[23] Organisation Mondiale de la Santé (1994). CIM 10—Classification internationale des troubles mentaux et des troubles du comportement: Descriptions cliniques et directives pour le diagnostic. Paris: Masson.
[24] Pry, R., & Aussilloux, C. (2000). Le childhoodautism rating scales (cars) chez l’enfant autiste jeune: Analyse des items, étude des traits latents, validité concourante et généralisabilité. Psychologie et psychométrie, 21, 33-47.
[25] Pry, R., Bodet J., Pernon, E., Aussilloux, C., & Bagdadli, A. (2007). Initial characteristics of psychological development and evolution of the young autistic child. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 37, 341-353. doi:10.1007/s10803-006-0161-7
[26] Pry, R., Guillain, A., & Foxonet, C. (1996). Adaptation sociale et com pétences sociocognitives chez l’enfant de 4-5 ans. Enfance, 3, 315 329. doi:10.3406/enfan.1996.3030
[27] Recordon-Gaboriaud, S. (2009). Les prises en charge de l’autisme, pratiques et recherches en France. Pratiques en Santé Mentale, 55, 11-17.
[28] Robins, D. L., Fein, D., Barton, M. L., & Green, J. A. (2001). The modified checklist for autism in toddlers: An initial study investigat ing the early detection of autism and pervasive developmental disor ders. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 31, 131-144. doi:10.1023/A:1010738829569
[29] Rochat, P. (2001). The infant’s world. Cambridge: Harward University Press.
[30] Rogers, S., & Benetto, L. (2002). Le fonctionnement moteur dans le cas de l’autisme. Enfance, 1, 63-73. doi:10.3917/enf.541.0063
[31] Schopler, E., Reichler, R. J., DeVellis, R. F., & Daly, K. (1980). To ward objective classification of childhood autism: Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS). Journal of Autism and Developmental Disor ders, 10, 91-103. doi:10.1007/BF02408436
[32] Seltzer, M. M., Shattuck, P, Abbetudo, L., & Greenberg, J. S. (2004). Trajectory of development in adolescents and adults with autism. Mental Retardation Developmental Disabilities Research Review, 10, 234-247. doi:10.1002/mrdd.20038
[33] Sparrow, S. S., Balla, D. A., & Cicchetti, D. V. (1984). Vineland adaptive behavior scale. Circle Pines, MN: American Guidance Service.
[34] Yirmiya, N., Gamliel. I., Pilowsky, T., Feldam, R., Baron-Cohen, S., & Sigman, M. (2006). The development of siblings of children with au tism at 4 and 14 months: Social engagement, communication, and cognition. Journal of Child Psychology and Child Psychiatry and Applied Disciplines, 47, 511-523. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7610.2005.01528.x

Copyright © 2024 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.