Isolated Area Load Forecasting using Linear Regression Analysis: Practical Approach ()
Abstract
This paper presents an analysis to forecast the loads of an isolated area where the history of load is not available or the history may not represent the realistic demand of electricity. The analysis is done through linear regression and based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth depends. To determine the identification factors, areas are selected whose histories of load growth rate known and the load growth deciding factors are similar to those of the isolated area. The proposed analysis is applied to an isolated area of Bangladesh, called Swandip where a past history of electrical load demand is not available and also there is no possibility of connecting the area with the main land grid system.
Share and Cite:
M. Mahmud, "Isolated Area Load Forecasting using Linear Regression Analysis: Practical Approach,"
Energy and Power Engineering, Vol. 3 No. 4, 2011, pp. 547-550. doi:
10.4236/epe.2011.34067.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
References
|
[1]
|
D. Park, M. Al-Sharkawi, R. Marks, A. Atlas and M. Damborg, “Electric Load Forecasting Using an Artificial Neural Network,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1991, pp. 442-449. doi:10.1109/59.76685
|
|
[2]
|
A. D. Papalxopoulos and T. C. Hiterbeg, “A Regression- Based Approach to Short-Term Load Forecasting,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1990, pp. 1535-1547. doi:10.1109/59.99410
|
|
[3]
|
G. Gross and F. D. Galianan, “Short-Term Load Forecasting,” Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 75, No. 12, 1987, pp. 1558-1572. doi:10.1109/PROC.1987.13927
|
|
[4]
|
S. Sachdeva and C. M. Verma, “Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Methods,” Proceeding of Joint International Conference on Power System Technology and IEEE Power India Conference, New Delhi, 12-15 October 2008, pp. 1-4.
|
|
[5]
|
G. T. Heinemann, D. A. Nordman and E. C. Plant, “The Relationship between Summer Weather and Summer Loads,” IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-85, No. 11, 1966, pp. 1144-1154.
doi:10.1109/TPAS.1966.291535
|
|
[6]
|
H. Morais, P. K. P. Faria, Z. A. Vale and H. M. Khodr, “Optimal Scheduling of a Renewable Micro-Grid in an Isolated Load Area Using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming,” Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, No. 1, 2010, pp. 151-156. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2009.02.031
|