Development of a Strategic Planning Model for a Municipal Water Supply Scheme Using System Dynamics

Adelere E. Adeniran^1*, Olufemi A. Bamiro²

¹Civil & Environmental Engineering Department, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria.
²Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.

DOI: 10.4236/jwarp.2015.715097                

Abstract

This paper reports the development of a system dynamics model for the strategic planning of a municipal water supply scheme. The model is capable of handling the critical variables that impact on the operations of a water supply scheme. The model was developed using the dynamo programming software to handle the process dynamics. Other supporting softwares—Fortran, Clipper 5, and Epiglue are used to handle data input, analysis and presentation of results in a user-friendly environment. The model was validated by applying it to the simulation of the University of Ibadan Water Supply Scheme for which extensive data of operations were collected over a period of ten years. The results obtained were found to be realistic and useful for the planning of plant operations. It is concluded that the model developed is sensitive to variable changes and has the capability of answering various operational “what-if” questions. As a strategic planning tool, the present model generates, for different scenarios, important operational information for the management of the water supply scheme. It is concluded that SD model is a useful tool to assist water managers and policy makers in making decisions and evolving strategic planning for water supply.

Keywords

Municipal Water Supply, System Dynamics, Strategic Planning, Policy Decisions

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Adeniran, A.E. and Bamiro, O.A. (2010) A System Dynamics Strategic Planning Model for a Municipal Water Supply Scheme. Proceedings of the International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, 25-29 July 2010.
[2]	Adeniran, A.E. (2014) Application of System Dynamics Model in the Determination of the Unit Cost of Production of Drinking Water. International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 6, 183-192. http://dx.doi.org/10.5897/IJWREE2013.0479
[3]	Adeniran, A.E. (2007) Development of a System Dynamics Strategic Planning Model for a Municipal Water Supply System. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Ibadan, Ibadan.
[4]	World Bank (1993) A Strategy for Managing Water in the Middle East and North Africa, IBRD. World Bank, New York.
[5]	Forester, J.W. (1961) Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge.
[6]	Forrester, J.W. (1992) Policies, Decisions and Information Sources for Modeling. European Journal of Operation Research, 59, 42-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90006-U
[7]	Fletcher, E.J. (1998) The Use of System Dynamics as a Decision Support Tool for the Management of Surface Water Resources. First International Conference on New Information Technologies for Decision Making in Civil Engineering, Montreal, 11-13 October 1998, 909-920.
[8]	Ford, A. (1999) Modeling the Environment—An Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling of Environmental Systems. Island Press, Washington DC.
[9]	Deaton, M.L. and Winebrake, J.I. (1999) Dynamic Modeling of Environmental Systems. Springer-Verlag, New York.
[10]	Huang, G.H. and Chang, N.B. (2003) Perspectives of Environmental Informatics and Systems Analysis. Journal of Environmental Informatics, 1, 1-6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3808/jei.200300001
[11]	Bamiro, A.O. (1995) Electronic Oracle—Seeing through Computer Models. Post Graduate School Interdisciplinary Discourse, University of Ibadan, Ibadan.