Population Ageing, Urbanization and Housing Demand

Zhangming Wang, Chengzhang Wang, Qian Zhang

School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China.

DOI: 10.4236/jssm.2015.84052                

Abstract

Using overlapping generation model, we find that population ageing does restrain housing demand. Then, we use the panel data of China’s 31 provinces between 2002 and 2013 to confirm that ageing restrains housing demand, the process of urbanization does the opposite and maybe offsets the negative effect to some extent. At present, China should continue to focus on developing urbanization rapidly, especially focus on the population urbanization. In the process, the government should change its development ideas and increase the supply of public service for population ageing.

Keywords

Population Ageing, Population Urbanization Rate, Housing Prices

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Mankiw, N.G. and Weil, D.N. (1990) The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19, 235-258.
[2]	Cai, F. (2004) Demographic Transition, Population Dividend, and Sustainability of Economic Growth. Population Research, 2, 2-9.
[3]	Chen, B.K., Xu, F. and Tan, L. (2012) Demographic Transition and Housing Demand in China: Micro Empirical Research on Census Data from 1999 to 2025. Journal of Financial Research, 1, 129-140.
[4]	Cai, F. (2010) Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend, and Lewis Turning Point in China. Economic Research Journal, 4, 4-13.
[5]	Hu, A.G., Liu, S.L. and Ma, Z.G. (2012) Population Ageing, Population Growth and Economic Growth: Evidence from Provincial Panel Data in China. Population Research, 3, 14-26.
[6]	Chen, M.H. and Hao, G.C. (2014) Research on Regional Difference Decomposition and Influence Factors of Population Ageing in China. China Population, 4, 136-141.
[7]	Takats, E., et al. (2012) Ageing and House Prices. Journal of Housing Economics, 21, 131-141. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2012.04.001
[8]	Chen, G.J., Li, W. and Zhou, J. (2013) Research on the Relationship Between Population Structure and Housing Prices—An Analysis Based on Overlapping Generation Model and Provincial Panel Data in China. Economist, 10, 40-47.
[9]	Li, X. and Gao, B. (2011) The Effect of Population Age Structure on Housing Market. Reform of Economic System, 6, 38-42.
[10]	Chen, Y.B. and Chen, X.L. (2013) The Influence of Population Ageing on China’s Urban Housing Demand. Economic Theory and Business Management, 5, 45-58.
[11]	Zhou, Y. and Cheng F. (2013) The Effect of Population Structure on Housing Prices—Based on Empirical Analysis of Beijing. Reformation & Strategy, 11, 78-81.
[12]	Zou, J. (2014) Demographic Trends and House Price Fluctuation—Evidence from China. Finance & Economics, 6, 115-124.
[13]	Xiao, Z. and Xu, Q. (2013) The Effect of Demographic Changes on Residential Segment Market—Based on Empirical Analysis of Panel Data. Modern Management Science, 12, 26-29.
[14]	Xu, J.W., Xu, Q.Y. and H, F. (2012) Demographic Factors Behind the Rise in Housing Prices: International Experience and Evidence in China. The Journal of World Economy, 1, 24-42.
[15]	Chang, L. and Jia, J.R. (2012) An Impact Study on the Relationship between Housing Price and Urbanization. Economic Survey, 3, 50-54.
[16]	Han, Z.L. and Wang H.W. (2014) Regional Differences, Urbanization and Real Estate Prices—Evidence from China’s Real Estate Market. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2, 63-70.
[17]	Xue, F. and Yuan, R.H. (2014) Empirical Analysis on Urbanization Impact on the Development of Real Estate in China. Economic Geography, 4, 78-83.
[18]	Li, Y.L., Liu, J.S., Wu, Q. and Shu, B.R. (2014) Study on the Impact of Different Types of Housing Prices on Urbanization: Evidence from Provincial Panel Data in China. China Land Sciences, 4, 26-32.
[19]	Fan, J. and Zhao, D.T. (2012) The Coordination Determination of Land Urbanization and Population Urbanization and Its Influencing Factors. Economist, 5, 61-67.
[20]	Allais, M. (1947) Economieetinteret. Impremiere Nationale, Paris.
[21]	Samuelson, P.A. (1958) An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money. Journal of Political Economy, 66, 467-482. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/258100
[22]	Diamond, P. (1965) National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model. American Economic Review, 41, 1126-1150.