The Effectiveness of the ECB Announcement Channel

Ahmed Hachicha, Afif Masmoudi

Department of Economic Development, Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax, Tunisia.
Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sciences, Sfax, Tunisia.

DOI: 10.4236/am.2014.56097                

Abstract

Empirical study on the factors that induce jumps in interest rates in the euro area is still missing. In this paper, maximum likelihood estimates of I-distribution parameters are extracted using as a first step, an original linear model. According to the contribution of ([1] [2]) in the case of developing a class of Poisson-Gaussian model, we try to enhance the predictive power of this model by distinguishing between a pure Gaussian and Poisson-Gaussian distributions. Such an empirical tool permits to optimizing results through a comparative analysis dealing with the fluctuation of the Euro-interbank offered rate and its statistical descriptive behaviour. The analytical and empirical methods try to evaluate the behavioural success of the ECB intervention in setting interest rates for different maturities. Jumps in euribor interest rate can mainly be linked to surprise decisions of the European Central Bank, and the too frequent meetings of the ECB before November 2001. Despite this special event that leads to a certain lack of predictability, other few day-of-week effects are modelled to prove eventual evidence of bond market overreaction. Empirical results prove that Mondays and Wednesdays are the preponderant days. Regarding monetary policy, negative surprises induce larger jumps than positive ones.

Keywords

Jumps, Euribor Interest Rates, Poisson-Gaussian Model, Negative Surprises

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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