Dynamical Donwscaling for Railroad Areas in Eastern Amazon and Southeastern Brazil: Current Climate and Near-Future Projections

Abstract

We performed a dynamic downscaling using REGCM4 regional model driven by MPI global model for current (1990/2012) and near-future (2015/2039) climate in order to characterize the seasonal rainfall regimes throughout the railroad areas in eastern Amazon and southeastern Brazil. The analysis of observational data for the current climate indicated the existence of pronounced spatial variations in rainfall regime across railroad regions during both the rainy and dry seasons. Although models have presented generalized underestimation, the regional model showed improvements on spatial representation and intensity of the rainfall in comparison with global model results. We reported the future projections taking into account the correction of simulated rainfall by the values of the biases found in each respective seasonal regime, so that the results are expressed by percentage changes of the future (2015/2037) relative to the current climate patterns. For the railroad in eastern Amazon, projections indicate a weak decrease of rainfall of about -15% in the rainy season (January to May), however during the dry season (June to October) are expected drastic reductions between -70% and -90% in south (Carajás in Pará state) and north (Sao Luis in Maranhao state) portions. Conversely, for the railroad in southeast Brazil, model projections point out for an increased rainfall regime during the rainy season (October to February) around +30% to +40% in the east part of the region over the Espírito Santo state.

Share and Cite:

De Souza, E. , de Moraes, B. , Ferreira, D. and Filho, L. (2014) Dynamical Donwscaling for Railroad Areas in Eastern Amazon and Southeastern Brazil: Current Climate and Near-Future Projections. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 155-163. doi: 10.4236/acs.2014.42018.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1] Lopes, M.M., Silva, R.A. and Coronel, D.A. (2013) Competitiveness of Brazilian Exports of Iron Ore (1999-2012). Proceedings 2nd International Forum ECOINOVAR (ECO INNOVATION International Forum), Santa Maria, 23-24 September 2013, 1-8.
[2] De Souza, E.B. and Ambrizzi, T. (2004) Pentad Precipitation Climatology over Brazil and the Associated Atmospheric Mechanisms. Climanálise, 1, 1-25.
[3] Reboita, M.S., Gan, M.A., da Rocha, R.P. and Ambrizzi, T. (2010) Regimes de precipitacao na América do Sul: Uma revisao bibliográfica. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 25, 185-204.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862010000200004
[4] (2013) IPCC AR5: Summary for Policymakers. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. and Midgley, P.M., Eds., Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Vol. 1,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 33 p.
[5] PBMC—Painel Brasileiro de Mudancas Climáticas (2013) Sumário Executivo—Base Científica das Mudancas Climáticas. Contribuicao do Grupo de Trabalho 1 ao Primeiro Relatório de Avaliacao Nacional do Painel Brasileiro de Mudancas Climáticas. Vol. 1, PBMC, Rio de Janeiro, 24 p.
[6] Pal, J.S., Giorgi, F., Bi, X., Elguindi, N., Solmon, F., et al. (2007) The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET: Regional Climate Modeling for the Developing World. Bulletin of the American Meteorolological Society, 88, 1395-1409. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1395
[7] Silva, V.B., Kousky, S., Shi, V.W. and Higgins, R.W. (2007) An Improved Gridded Historical Daily Precipitation Analysis for Brazil. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8, 847-861. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/ JHM598.1
[8] De Souza, E.B., Lopes, M.N.G., da Rocha, E.J.P., Souza, J.R.S., Cunha, A.C., et al. (2009) Precipitacao climatológica sobre a Amazonia oriental durante o período chuvoso: Observacoes e simulacoes regionais com o RegCM3. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 24, 111-124.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862009000200001
[9] Raddatz, T., Reick, C., Knorr, W., Kattge, J., Roeckner, E., et al. (2007) Will the Tropical Land Biosphere Dominate the Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback during the Twenty-First Century? Climate Dynamics, 29, 565-574. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0247-8
[10] van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., et al. (2011) The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/ s10584-011-0148-z
[11] Giorgi, F. and Bates, G.T. (1989) The Climatological Skill of a Regional Climate Model over Complex Terrain. Monthly Weather Review, 117, 2325-2347. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989) 117<2325:TCSOAR>2.0.CO;2
[12] Giorgi, F., Copola, E., Solmon, F., Mariotti, L., Sylla, M.B., et al. (2012) RegCM4: Model Description and Preliminary Tests over Multiple CORDEX Domains. Climate Research, 52, 7-29.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01018
[13] Da Rocha, R.P., Morales, C.A., Cuadra, S.V. and Ambrizzi, T. (2009) Precipitation Diurnal Cycle and Summer Climatology Assessment over South America: An Evaluation of Regional Climate Model Version 3 Simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, Article ID: D10108.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010212
[14] Da Rocha, R.P., Cuadra, S.V., Reboita, M.S., Kruger, L.F., Ambrizzi, T. and Krusche, N. (2012) Effects of RegCM3 Parameterizations on Simulated Rainy Season over South America. Climate Research, 52, 253-265. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01065
[15] Cuadra, S.V. and da Rocha, R.P. (2006) Simulacao numérica do clima de verao sobre o Brasil e sua variabilidade. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 21, 271-282.
[16] Machado, R.D. and Da Rocha, R.P. (2011) Previsoes climáticas Sazonais sobre o Brasil: Avaliacao do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 26, 121-126.
[17] Moraes, B.C., Ferreira, D.B.S., Meira Filho, L.G., Oliveira, J.V., De Souza, E.B., et al. (2013) Comparative Skill of Numerical Weather Forecasts in Eastern Amazonia. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 3, 355-363. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2013.33037
[18] Marengo, J.A., Chou, S.C., Kay, G., Alves, L.M., Pesquero, J.F., et al. (2012) Development of Regional Future Climate Change Scenarios in South America Using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 Climate Change Projections: Climatology and Regional Analyses for the Amazon, Sao Francisco and the Paraná River Basins. Climate Dynamics, 38, 1829-1848. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1155-5

Copyright © 2024 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.