Trend and Periodicity Analysis in Rainfall Pattern of Nira Basin, Central India


Seasonal and annual rainfall data of the stations: Akluj, Baramati, Bhor and Malsiras stations located in Nira Basin, Central India, were analyzed for studying trend and periodicity using 104 years’ rainfall data. The analysis was carried out by using Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) and Theil and Sen’s slope estimator tests describing rising trend at all the stations. However, it is statistically significant at Akluj and Bhor stations at 10% significance level. Bhor station showed the maximum increase in percentage change i.e. 0.28% in annual rainfall. Monsoon and post-monsoon seasonal rainfall shows a rising trend while the summer and winter seasonal rainfall shows a falling trend. Wavelet analysis showed prominent annual rainfall periods ranging from 2 to 8 years at all the stations after 1960s resulting in describing more changes in the rainfall patterns after 1960s.

Share and Cite:

Murumkar, A. and Arya, D. (2014) Trend and Periodicity Analysis in Rainfall Pattern of Nira Basin, Central India. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 60-70. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.31006.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


[1] Douglas, E.M., Vogel, R.M. and Knoll, C.N. (2000) Trends in Flood and Low Flows in the United States: Impact of Spatial Correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240, 90-105.
[2] Partal, T. and Kahya, E. (2006) Trend Analysis in Turish Precipitation Data. Hydrologic Process, 20, 2011-2026.
[3] Basistha, A., Arya, D.S. and Goel, N.K. (2008) An Analysis of Historical Rainfall Change in Indian Himalayas. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 555-572.
[4] Kumar, V. and Jain, S.K. (2011) Trends in Rainfall Amount and Number of Rainy Days in River Basins of India (1951-2004). Hydrology Research, 42, 290-306.
[5] Jain, S.K., Kumar, V. and Saharia, M. (2012) Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Northeast India. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 968-978.
[6] Murumkar, A., Arya, D.S. and Rahman, M.M. (2013) Seasonal and Annual Variations of Rainfall Pattern in the Jamuneswari Basin, Bangladesh. On a Sustainable Future of the Earth’s Natural Resources (ed.). Springer Earth System Sciences, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 349-362.
[7] Kothyari, U.C. and Singh, V.P. (1996) Rainfall and Temperature Trends in India. Hydrological Processes, 10, 357-372.<357::AID-HYP305>3.0.CO;2-Y
[8] Arora, M., Goel, N.K. and Singh, P. (2005) Evaluation of Temperature Trends over India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50, 81-93.
[9] Chattopadhyay, N. and Hulme, M. (1997) Evaporation and Potential Evapotranspiration in India under Conditions of Recent and Future Climate Change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 87, 55-73.
[10] Burn, D.H. and Hesch, N.M. (2007) Trends in Evaporation for the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Hydrology, 336, 61-73.
[11] Zhang, X., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D. and Yuzyk, T.R. (2001) Trends in Canadian Streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37, 987-998.
[12] Cigizoglu, H.K., Bayazit, M. and Onoz, B. (2005) Trends on the Maximum, Mean and Low Flows of Turkish Rivers. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6, 280-295.
[13] Van Belle, G. and Hughes, J.P. (1984) Nonparametric Tests for Trend in Water Quality. Water Resources Research, 20, 127-136.
[14] Kalayci, S. and Kahya, E. (1998) Detection of Water Quality Trends in the Rivers of the Susurluk Basin. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Science, 22, 503-514.
[15] Mooley, D.A. and Parthasarthy, B. (1984) Fluctuations of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall during 1871-1978. Climatic Change, 6, 287-301.
[16] Thapliyal, V. and Kulshrestha, S.M. (1991) Decadal Changes and Trends over India. Mausam, 42, 333-338.
[17] Kumar, V., Jain, S.K. and Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Trends in India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55, 484-496.
[18] Koteswaram, P. and Alvi, S.M.A. (1969) Secular Trends and Periodicities in Rainfall at West Coast Stations in India. Current Science, 38, 229-231.
[19] Jagannathan, P. and Parthasarathy, B. (1973) Trends and Periodicities of Rainfall over India. Monthly Weather Review, 101, 371-375.<0371:TAPORO>2.3.CO;2
[20] Raghavendra, V.K. (1974) Trends and Periodicities of Rainfall in Sub-Divisions of Maharashtra State. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 25, 197-210.
[21] Chaudhary, A. and Abhyankar, V.P. (1979) Does Precipitation Pattern Foretell Gujarat Climate Becoming Arid. Mausam, 30, 85-90.
[22] Kumar, V., Singh, P. and Jain, S.K. (2005) Rainfall Trends over Himachal Pradesh, Western Himalaya, India. Conference on Development of Hydro Power Projects—A Prospective Challenge, Shimla, 20-22 April 2005.
[23] Dash, S.K., Jenamani, R.K., Kalsi, S.R. and Panda, S.K. (2007) Some Evidence of Climate Change in Twentieth-Century India. Climatic Change, 85, 299-321.
[24] Kumar, V. and Jain, S.K. (2010) Trends in Seasonal and Annual Rainfall and Rainy Days in Kashmir Valley in the Last Century. Quaternary International, 212, 64-69.
[25] Mann, H.B. (1945) Non-Parametric Tests against Trend. Econometrica, 13, 245-259.
[26] Kendall, M.G. (1955) Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, London.
[27] Steele, T.D., Gilroy, E.J. and Hawkinson, R.O. (1974) Techniques for the Assessment of Areal and Temporal Variations in Streamflow Quality. Open File Report, US Geological Survey, Washington DC.
[28] Hirsch, R.M., Slack, J.R. and Smith, R.A. (1982) Techniques of Trend Analysis for Monthly Water Quality Data. Water Resources Research, 18, 107-121.
[29] Kahya, E. and Kalayci, S. (2004) Trend Analysis of Streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 289, 128-144.
[30] Haan, C.T. (1995) Statistical Methods in Hydrology. Iowa State University Press, Ames, 378.
[31] Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. (2002) The Influence of Autocorrelation on the Ability to Detect Trend in Hydrological Series. Hydrological Processes, 16, 1807-1829.
[32] Hamed, K.H. and Rao, A.R. (1998) A Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test for Autocorrelated Data. Journal of Hydrology, 204, 182-196.
[33] Rao, A.R., Hamed, K.H. and Chen, H.L. (2003) Non-Stationarities in Hydrologic and Environmental Time Series. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 362.
[34] Daubechies, I. (1992) Ten Lectures on Wavelets. CSBM-NSF Series Application Mathematics, 61, SIAM Publication, Philadelphia, 357.
[35] Polikar, R. (1999) The Story of Wavelets. In Mastorakis, N., Ed., Physics and Modern Topics in Mechanical and Electrical Engineering. World Scientific and Engineering Society Press, Athens, 192-197.
[36] Pisoft, P., Kalvova, J. and Brazdil, R. (2004) Cycles and Trends in the Czech Temperatures Series Using Wavelet Transform. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 1661-1670.
[37] Nakken, M. (1999) Wavelet Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Variability Isolating Climatic from Anthropogenic Patterns. Environmental Modelling & Software, 14, 283-295.
[38] Smith, L.C., Turcotte, D.L. and Isacks, B.L. (1998) Stream Flow Characterization and Feature Detection Using a Discrete Wavelet Transform. Hydrological Processes, 12, 233-249.<233::AID-HYP573>3.0.CO;2-3
[39] Yan, Z., Tsimplis, M.N. and Woolf, D. (2004) Analysis of the Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Sea Level Changes in Northeast Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 743-758.
[40] Park, J. and Mann, M.E. (2000) Inter-Annual Temperature Events and Shifts in Global Temperature: A Multiple Wavelet Correlation Approach. Earth Interactions, 19, 391-403.
[41] Penalba, O.C. and Vargas, W.M. (2004) Interdecadal and Interannual Variations of Annual and Extreme Precipitation over Central-Northeastern Argentina. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 1565-1580.
[42] Torrence, C. and Compo, G.P. (1998) A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 61-78.<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2
[43] Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M. (2002) Statistical Methods in Water Resources. United States Geological Survey, 524.
[44] Santos, C.A.G., Galvao, C.O., Suzuki, K. and Trigo, R.M. (2001) Matsuyama City Rainfall Data Analysis Using Wavelet Transform. Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering-JSCE, 45, 211-216.
[45] Rupa Kumar, K., Pant, G.B., Parthasarathy, B. and Sontakke, N.A. (1992) Spatial and Sub Seasonal Patterns of the Long-Term Trends of Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 12, 257-268.
[46] Kittel, T.G.F., Rosenbloom, N.A., Painter, T.H. and Schimel, D.S. (1995) VEMAP Modeling Participants. The VEMAP Integrated Database for Modeling United States Ecosystem/Vegetation Sensitivity to Climate Change. Journal of Biogeography, 22, 857-862.
[47] Hulme, M., Mitchell, J.F.B., Ingram, W., Johns, T.C., Lowe, J.A., New, M.G. and Viner, D. (1999) Climate Change Scenarios for Global Impacts Studies. Global Environmental Change, 9, S3-S19.

Copyright © 2022 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.