A Fuzzy Probability-based Markov Chain Model for  Electric Power Demand Forecasting of Beijing, China

Xiaonan Zhou; Ye Tang; Yulei Xie; Yalou Li; Hongliang Zhang

doi:10.4236/epe.2013.54B094

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EPE> Vol.5 No.4B, July 2013

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A Fuzzy Probability-based Markov Chain Model for Electric Power Demand Forecasting of Beijing, China ()

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DOI: 10.4236/epe.2013.54B094 2,931 Downloads 3,833 Views Citations

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Xiaonan Zhou, Ye Tang, Yulei Xie, Yalou Li, Hongliang Zhang

Affiliation(s)

China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing, China.
Electric Power Research Institute of Guangdong Grid Corporation, Guangzhou, China.
Key Laboratory of Regional Energy System Optimization，Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT

In this study, a fuzzy probability-based Markov chain model is developed for forecasting regional long-term electric power demand. The model can deal with the uncertainties in electric power system and reflect the vague and ambiguous during the process of power load forecasting through allowing uncertainties expressed as fuzzy parameters and discrete intervals. The developed model is applied to predict the electric power demand of Beijing from 2011 to 2019. Different satisfaction degrees of fuzzy parameters are considered as different levels of detail of the statistic data. The results indicate that the model can reflect the high uncertainty of long term power demand, which could support the programming and management of power system. The fuzzy probability Markov chain model is helpful for regional electricity power system managers in not only predicting a long term power load under uncertainty but also providing a basis for making multi-scenarios power generation/development plans.

KEYWORDS

Fuzzy Probability; Markov Chain Model; Power Load Prediction; Satisfaction Degree; Uncertainty

Cite this paper

X. Zhou, Y. Tang, Y. Xie, Y. Li and H. Zhang, "A Fuzzy Probability-based Markov Chain Model for Electric Power Demand Forecasting of Beijing, China," Energy and Power Engineering, Vol. 5 No. 4B, 2013, pp. 488-492. doi: 10.4236/epe.2013.54B094.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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