Modeling the Customer Satisfaction Influence on the Long Term Sales: Example with Leading OTC Analgesics INN on National Market

DOI: 10.4236/me.2013.49060   PDF   HTML     3,334 Downloads   5,280 Views   Citations

Abstract

Background: The customer satisfaction models are used to examine brand loyalty and sales. The utilization of the counter medicines depends directly on the level of knowledge of consumers, preferences and their satisfaction could be considered as an important predictor for their revenue. Objectives: The goal of the current study is to develop a Markov model for assessing the influence of the customer satisfaction on long term sales of leading OTC international nonproprietary names (INNs) of analgesics on the national market. Methods: Two first-order stationary Markov models based on marketing data for OTC analgesics sales and customer satisfaction inquiry, particularly from metamizole (MET), paracetamol (PAR), acetysal (ASA), and ibuprofen (IBU) were created and manipulated. The first model considered the very satisfied customers and the second the very satisfied and the somewhat satisfied customers. Results: MET is the INN with the most loyal customers followed by PAR. The product Markov matrix was derived after multiplications of the matrixes with market share and loyal customers’ probabilities. The steady state is achieved after 17 years for the group of satisfied customers and after 40 iterations for the group of somewhat satisfied. The market fluctuations are more dynamic in the second model probably due to lower determination of customers purchasing behavior. Conclusions: The model allows prediction of the long term changes in sales, differences between the groups of customers and long term marketing fluctuations. It could be useful in companies’ strategic sales management.

Share and Cite:

G. Petrova, N. Mateev, D. Barumov, L. Peikova, M. Dimitrova and M. Manova, "Modeling the Customer Satisfaction Influence on the Long Term Sales: Example with Leading OTC Analgesics INN on National Market," Modern Economy, Vol. 4 No. 9, 2013, pp. 569-575. doi: 10.4236/me.2013.49060.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1] P. W. Farris, N. T. Bendle, P. E. Pfeifer and D. J. Reibstein, “Marketing Metrics: The Definitive Guide to Measuring Marketing Performance,” Pearson Education Inc., Upper Saddle River, 2010.
[2] F. Clerfeuille, Y. Poubanne, M. Vakrilova and G. Petrova, “Evaluation of Consumer Satisfaction Using the Tetraclass Model,” Research of Social and Administrative Pharmacy, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2008, pp. 258-271. doi:10.1016/j.sapharm.2007.06.020
[3] S. Kucukarslan and J. C. Schommer, “Patients’ Expectations and Their Satisfaction with Pharmacy Services,” Journal of the American Pharmacists Association, Vol. 42, No. 3, 2002, pp. 489-496.
[4] S. Llosa, “L’analyse de la Contribution des er Lerments du Service a` la Satisfaction: Un Mode` le Tertra-Classe,” 1997.
[5] N. Nguyen, A. Leclerc and G. LeBlanc, “The Mediating Role of Customer Trust on Customer Loyalty,” Journal of Service Science and Management, Vol. 6, No. 1, 2013, pp. 96-109. doi:10.4236/jssm.2013.61010
[6] A. L. Kjos, M. M. Worley and J. C. Schommer, “The Social Network Paradigm and Its Application in the Pharmacy,” Research of Social and Administrative Pharmacy, Vol. 9, No. 4, 2013, pp. 1356-1369. doi:10.1016/j.sapharm.2012.05.015
[7] S. J. Blalock, “The Theoretical Basis for Practice-Relevant Medication Use Research: Patient-Centered/Behavioral Theories,” Research of Social and Administrative Pharmacy, Vol. 7, No. 4, 2011, pp. 317-329. doi:10.1016/j.sapharm.2010.11.001
[8] K. Esaki, “Analysis of Influence of Price to Customer Satisfaction Based on Prediction Models,” Intelligent Information Management, Vol. 5, No. 3, 2013, pp. 93-102.
[9] R. T. Rust and A. J. Zahorik, “Customer Satisfaction, Customer Retention, and Market Share,” Journal of Retailing Vol. 69, No. 2, 1993, pp. 193-215. doi:10.1016/0022-4359(93)90003-2
[10] A. S. Ehrenberg, “An Appraisal of Markov Brand-Switching Models,” Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1996, pp. 347-362. doi:10.2307/3149481
[11] N. M. Rickles, “A Multi-Theoretical Approach to Linking Medication Adherence Levels and the Comparison of Outcomes,” Research of Social and Administrative Pharmacy, Vol. 6, No. 1, 2010, pp. 49-62. doi:10.1016/j.sapharm.2009.02.006
[12] K. E. Herbert, J. M. Urmie, B. A. Newland and K. B. Farris, “Prediction of Pharmacist Intention to Provide Medicare Medication Therapy Management Services Using the Theory of Planned Behavior,” Research of Social and Administrative Pharmacy, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2006, pp. 299-314. doi:10.1016/j.sapharm.2006.02.008
[13] S. Kessler, Customer Satisfaction Toolkit for ISO 9001: 2000. ASQ Quality Press, Milwaukee, 2003.
[14] J. Wirtz and J. E. G. Bateson, “An Experimental Investigation of Halo Effects in Satisfaction Measures of Service Attributes,” International Journal of Service Industry Management, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1995, pp. 84-102. doi:10.1108/09564239510091358
[15] European Parliament and of the Council, “Community Code Relating to Medicinal Products for Human Use,” Official Journal, Vol. 311, 2004, pp. 67-128.
[16] W. Sneader, “Discovery of Aspirin: A Reappraisal,” British Medical Journal, Vol. 32, No. 1, 2002, pp. 1591-1594.
[17] WHO Collaborating Centre for Drug Statistics Methodology, “ATC Classification of Drugs,” 2013. http://www.who.int/classifications/atcddd/en/
[18] T. Valente, “Social Networks and Health,” Oxford University Press, Inc., Oxford, 2010. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195301014.001.0001
[19] H. Frydman, “Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Mover Stayer Model,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 79, No. 387, 1984, pp. 632-638. doi:10.1080/01621459.1984.10478090
[20] J. Jacoby and R. Chestnut, “Brand Loyalty: Measurement and Management,” John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1978.
[21] J. Draper and L. Nolin, “A Markov Chain Analysis of Brand Preference,” Journal of Advertising Research, Vol. 4, No. 3, 1964, pp. 33-38.
[22] Ph. Pfeifer and R. Carraway, “Modeling Customer Relationships as Markov Chains,” Journal of Interactive Marketing, Vol. 14, No. 2, 2000, pp. 43-55. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1520-6653(200021)14:2<43::AID-DIR4>3.0.CO;2-H
[23] R. J. Courtheaux, “Database Marketing: Developing a Profitable Mailing Plan,” Catalog Age, 1986.
[24] A. M. Hughes, “Customer Retention: Integrating Life Time Value into Marketing Strategies,” Journal of Database Marketing, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1997, pp. 171-178.
[25] Z. Zare-Hoseini, M. J. Tarokh and H. J. Nooghabi, “LifeTime Value Model in the Medical Sector: A Case Study of a Restoration and Beauty Clinic,” International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2011, pp. 54-66. doi:10.1108/17506121111121587
[26] B. J. Bronnenberg, “Advertising Frequency Decisions in Discrete Markov Process under a Budget Constraints,” Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 35, No. 3, 1998, pp. 399-406. doi:10.2307/3152037
[27] D. J. White, “A Survey of Application of Markov Decision Processes,” The Journal of the Operational Research Society,” Vol. 44, No. 11, 1993, pp. 1073-1096. doi:10.2307/2583870
[28] C. Dura, “The Use of Markov Chains in Marketing Forecasting,” Annals of the University of Petrosani, Vol. 6, 2006, pp. 69-76.
[29] R. T. Rust, K. N. Lemon and V. A. Zeithaml, “Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Journal of Marketing, Vol. 68, No. 1, 2004. pp. 109-127.
[30] J. Gummerus, V. Liljander, M. Pura and A. van Riel, “Customer Loyalty to Content-Based Web Sites: The Case of an Online Health-Care Service,” Journal of Services Marketing, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2004, pp. 175-186. doi:10.1108/08876040410536486
[31] R. Ouschan, J. Sweeney and L. Johnson, “Customer Empowerment and Relationship Outcomes in Healthcare Consultations,” European Journal of Marketing, Vol. 40, No. 9-10, 2006, pp. 1068-1086. doi:10.1108/03090560610681014
[32] J. Y. Wick, “Aspirin: A History, a Love Story,” Consultant Pharmacists, Vol. 27, No. 5, 2012, pp. 322-329. doi:10.4140/TCP.n.2012.322
[33] R. Jones, “Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Prescribing: Past, Present, and Future,” The American Journal of Medicine, Vol. 110, No. 1, 2001, pp. S4-S7. doi:10.1016/S0002-9343(00)00627-6
[34] H. Vainio and G. Morgan, “Aspirin for the Second Hundred Years: New Uses for an Old Drug,” Pharmacology and Toxicology, Vol. 81, No. 4, 1997, pp. 151-152. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0773.1997.tb02060.x
[35] J. R. Vane and R. M. Botting, “The Mechanism of Action of Aspirin,” Thrombosis Research, Vol. 110, No. 5-6, 2003, pp. 255-258. doi:10.1016/S0049-3848(03)00379-7
[36] M. Backstrom, S. Hagg, T. Mjorndal and R. Dahlqvist, “Utilization Pattern of Metamizole in Northern Sweden and Risk Estimates of Agranulocytosis,” Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2002, pp. 239-245. doi:10.1002/pds.697
[37] United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “Consolidated List of Products Whose Consumption and/or Sale Have Been Banned, Withdrawn, Severely Restricted of Not Approved by Governments,” 12th Edition, United Nations, New York, 2005, pp. 171-175.
[38] R. B. Raffa, “Pharmacology of Oral Combination Analgesics: Rational Therapy for Pain,” Journal of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics, Vol. 26, No. 4, 2001, pp. 257-264. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2710.2001.00355.x
[39] C. M. Wilcox, B. Cryer and G. Triadafilopoulos, “Patterns of Use and Public Perception of Over-the-Counter Pain Relievers: Focus on Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs,” The Journal of Rheumatology, Vol. 32, No. 11, 2005, pp. 2218-2224.
[40] S. Adams, “The Propionic Acids: A Personal Perspective,” Journal of Clinical Pharmacology, Vol. 32, No. 4, 1992, pp. 317-323. doi:10.1002/j.1552-4604.1992.tb03842.x
[41] P. Rao and E. E. Knaus, “Evolution of Nonsteroidal AntiInflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs): Cyclooxygenase (COX) Inhibition and Beyond,” Journal of Pharmacy & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2008, pp. 81s-110s.
[42] A. Bertolini, A. Ferrari, A. Ottani, S. Guerzoni, R. Tacchi and S. Leone, “Paracetamol: New Vistas of an Old Drug,” CNS Drug Reviews, Vol. 12, No. 3-4, 2006, pp. 250-275. doi:10.1111/j.1527-3458.2006.00250.x
[43] W. Sneader, “Drug Discovery: A History,” Wiley, Hoboken, 2005.
[44] T. Uchickura, N. Yokoi, M. Hashiguchi and M. Mochizuki, “Pharmacoeconomic Evaluation of Hypothetical over the Counter Angiotensin Converting Enzymes (ACE) Inhibitors for the Prevention of Stroke in Patient with Grade I Hypertension,” Jakugaku Zasshi, Vol. 131, No. 4, 2011, pp. 571-580. doi:10.1248/yakushi.131.571
[45] L. Charnatony and M. McDonald, “Creating Powerful Brands,” Butte Worth-Heineman Ltd., Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford, 1992.
[46] Bulgarian Drug Agency, “Pharmaceutical Market,” 2012. http://www.bda.bg/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=275&Itemid=151&lang=bg
[47] Ministry of Health, 2012. http://www.mh.government.bg/Articles.aspx?lang=bg-BG&pageid=517&categoryid=5753
[48] W. Wilkie, “Consumer Behavior,” John Willey and Sons, New York, 1994.
[49] B. Jackson, “Winning and Keeping Industrial Customers,” Lexington Books, Lexington, 1985.

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2020 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.