A Framework for Determining the Period When a Perennial Crop Is No Longer Profitable after a Disease Outbreak


A theoretical approach is developed for finding the optimal age to remove an orchard (or plantation) to maximize net present value, after a disease attack. The model is a bioeconomic model that considers the effects of disease management on disease spread and the effect of the disease on yields. This provides an optimal disease management strategy and optimal rotation period. Our work makes an important contribution to the literature. To the best of our knowledge, no previous work has considered the simultaneous question of optimal disease management and replanting age when disease is present in perennial crops. An empirical application is presented for the case of pudricióndelcogollo, a lethal and contagious disease that threatens oil palm plantations in Colombia. The model could be applied to a wide range of perennial crop diseases.

Share and Cite:

M. Mosquera, K. Grogan, E. Evans and T. Spreen, "A Framework for Determining the Period When a Perennial Crop Is No Longer Profitable after a Disease Outbreak," Theoretical Economics Letters, Vol. 3 No. 3, 2013, pp. 171-181. doi: 10.4236/tel.2013.33029.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


[1] E. A. Evans, “Economic Dimensions of Invasive Species,” Choices, Vol. 18, No. 2, 2003, pp. 5-9.
[2] R. C. Ploetz, “Diseases of Tropical Perennial Crops: Challenging Problems in Diverse Environments,” Plant Disease, Vol. 91, No. 6, 2007, pp. 644-663. doi:10.1094/PDIS-91-6-0644
[3] T. H. Spreen, M. L. Zansler and R. P. Muraro, “The Costs and Value Loss Associated with Florida Citrus Groves Exposed to Citrus Canker,” Proceedings of the Florida State Horticultural Society, Vol. 116, 2003, pp. 289-294.
[4] T. Mitra and H. Y. Wan, “On the Faustmann Solution to the Forest Management Problem,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 40, No. 2, 1986, pp. 229-249. doi:10.1016/0022-0531(86)90073-6
[5] C. Clark, “Mathematical Bioeconomics: The Math of Conservation,” John Wiley & Sons Inc., New Jersey, 2005.
[6] K. Deininger, S. Jin and H. K. Nagarajan, “Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Rural Land Rental Restrictions: Evidence from India,” European Economic Review, Vol. 52, No. 5, 2008, pp. 892-918. doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2007.08.002
[7] D. Leonard and N. van Long, “Optimal Control Theory and Static Optimization in Economics,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992.
[8] Fedepalma, “Anuario Estadístico 2007,” Fedepalma, Bogotá, 2008.
[9] P. L. Gómez, M. Mosquera and C. E. Castilla, “Oil Palm: a Sustainable Agro-industry in Colombia,” Oleagineaux, Gras et Lipides, Vol. 12, No. 2, 2005, pp. 121-124.
[10] C. Carter, W. Finley, J. Fry, D. Jackson and L. Willis, “Palm Oil Markets and Future Supply,” European Journal of Lipid Science and Technology, Vol. 109, No. 4, 2007, pp. 307-314. doi:10.1002/ejlt.200600256
[11] M. Mosquera and E. García, “Impacto Social De La Agroindustria De Palma De Aceite en Colombia,” Revista Palmas, Vol. 26, No. 2, 2005, pp. 11-19.
[12] M. Oliveira, D. Escobar, N. Rojas, J. Moreno, C. Quintero and A. Tibocha, “Caracterización del Empleo en el Sector Palmicultor Colombiano,” Cuadernos Fedesarrollo, Vol. 37, No. 1, 2011, pp. 1-93.
[13] G. Martinez, N. Arias, G. Sarria, G. Torres, F. Varón, C. Norena, S. Salcedo, H. Aya, J. Ariza, R. Aldana, L. C. Martinez, O. Moya and C. Burgos, “Manejo Integrado de la Pudrición del Cogollo (PC) de la Palma de Aceite,” SENA-SAC, Bogotá, 2009.
[14] M. Mosquera, “Propuesta de Evaluación del Impacto Económico de la PC en la Zona de Tumaco,” Working Paper, Cenipalma, Bogotá, 2007
[15] G. Torres, G. Sarria, and G. Martinez, “Identificación Temprana y Manejo de la Pudrición del Cogollo en la Palma de Aceite,” SENA, Bogotá, 2010.
[16] E. Duarte and L. Gutterman, “Actualización de los Costos de Producción del Aceite de Palma,” Workingpaper, Fedepalma, Bogotá, 2008.
[17] M. Valderrama and H. Mondragón, “Desarrollo y Equidad Con Campesinos,” Tercer Mundo Editores, Bogotá, 1998.
[18] A. Chiang, “Elements of Dynamic Optimization,” Waveland Press Inc., Prospect Heights, 2000.
[19] Fedepalma, “Anuario Estadístico 2011,” Fedepalma, Bogotá, 2012.
[20] E. Lichtenberg and D. Zilberman, “The Econometrics of Damage Control: Why Specification Matters,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 68, No. 2, 1986, pp. 261-273. doi:10.2307/1241427

Copyright © 2022 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.