A cost-optimal scenario of CO2 sequestration in a carbon-constrained world through to 2050

Takayuki Takeshita

Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

DOI: 10.4236/ns.2013.52A043                

Abstract

In this paper, a regionally disaggregated global energy system model with a detailed treatment of the whole chain of CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is used to derive the cost-optimal global pattern of CO₂ sequestration in regional detail over the period 2010-2050 under the target of halving global energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 compared to the 2005 level. The major conclusions are the following. First, enhanced coalbed methane recovery will become a key early opportunity for CO₂ sequestration, so coalrich regions such as the US, China, and India will play a leading role in global CO₂ sequestration. Enhanced oil recovery will also have a participation in global CO₂ sequestration from the initial stage of CCS deployment, which may be applied mainly in China, southeastern Asia, and West Africa in 2030 and mainly in the Middle East in 2050. Second, CO₂ sequestration will be carried out in an increasing number of world regions over time. In particular, CCS will be deployed extensively in today’s developing countries. Third, an increasing amount of the captured CO₂ will be stored in aquifers in many parts of the world due to their abundant and widespread availability and their low cost. It is shown that the share of aquifers in global CO₂ sequestration reaches 82.0% in 2050.

Keywords

CO₂ Sequestration; Simulation; Optimization; Global Energy System Model

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	IEA (2008) Energy technology perspectives 2008. IEA, Paris.
[2]	IEA (2004) Prospects for CO2 capture and storage. IEA, Paris.
[3]	Takeshita, T. and Yamaji, K. (2008) Important roles of Fischer-Tropsch synfuels in the global energy future. Energy Policy, 36, 2791-2802. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.02.044
[4]	Takeshita, T. (2012) Assessing the co-benefits of CO2 mitigation on air pollutants emissions from road vehicles. Applied Energy, 97, 225-237. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.12.029
[5]	IEA (2010) Energy technology perspectives 2010. IEA, Paris.
[6]	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2007) GGI scenario database. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/GGI/DB/
[7]	Rogner, H.-H. (2012) Energy resources and potentials. In: Johansson, T.B., Patwardhan, A., Nakicenovic, N. and Echeverri, L.G., Eds., Global Energy Assessment (GEA), Cambridge University Press, New York, 425-512. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511793677.013
[8]	Takeshita, T. (2009) A strategy for introducing modern bioenergy into developing Asia to avoid dangerous climate change. Applied Energy, 86, S222-S232. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.04.023
[9]	Takeshita, T. (2011) Competitiveness, role, and impact of microalgal biodiesel in the global energy future. Applied Energy, 88, 3481-3491. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.02.009
[10]	Riahi, K., Barreto, L., Rao, S. and Rubin, E.S. (2005) Towards fossil-based electricity systems with integrated CO2 capture: Implications of an illustrative long-term technology policy. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 921-929. doi:10.1016/B978-008044704-9/50093-8
[11]	Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (2002) Study project for implementation planning of the New Earth program. New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo.
[12]	Takeshita, T. and Yamaji, K. (2006) Potential contribution of coal to the future global energy system. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 8, 55-88. doi:10.1007/s10018-005-0123-x
[13]	IPCC (2005) Special report on carbon dioxide capture and storage. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.