A Sources-of-Error Model for Acoustic/Infrasonic Yield Estimation for Above-Ground Single-Point Explosions

DOI: 10.4236/inframatics.2012.11001   PDF   HTML     4,633 Downloads   14,637 Views   Citations


Acoustic/infrasonic measurements contain physical information enabling an estimate of the yield of a single-point explosion that is on or above ground. A variety of semi-empirical and numerical models have been developed for estimating the yield based on the amplitude of a recorded acoustic signal. This paper utilizes existing semi-empirical models-suitable for timely yield estimation—and develops the mathematical framework to properly account for uncertainties in these models, in addition to measurement uncertainties. The inclusion of calibration parameters into our mathematical model allows for the correction of constant path specific effects that are not captured in existing semi-empirical models. The calibrated model provides a yield estimate and associated error bounds that correctly partitions total error into model error and background noise. Yield estimation with the models is demonstrated with single-point, above ground chemical explosions at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) experimental testing facilities.

Share and Cite:

S. Arrowsmith, R. Whitaker, J. Maccarthy and D. Anderson, "A Sources-of-Error Model for Acoustic/Infrasonic Yield Estimation for Above-Ground Single-Point Explosions," InfraMatics, Vol. 1 No. 1, 2012, pp. 1-9. doi: 10.4236/inframatics.2012.11001.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


[1] ANSI, “Estimating Airblast Characteristics for Single Point Explosions in Air, With a Guide to Evaluation of Atmospheric Propagation and Effects,” Technical report, 1983.
[2] D. A. Douglas, “Blast Operational Overpressure Model (BOOM): An Airblast Prediction Method,” Technical report, Air Force Weapons Laboratory, Kirtland AFB, NM, 1987.
[3] M. J. McFarland, J. W. Watkins, M. M. Kordich, D. A. Pollet and G. R. Palmer, “Use of Noise Attenuation Modeling in Managing Missile Motor Detonation Activities,” Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, Vol. 54, No. 3, 2004, pp. 342-351. doi:10.1080/10473289.2004.10470909
[4] L. R. Hole, “An Experimental and Theoretical Study of Propagation of Acoustic Pulses in a Strongly Refracting Atmosphere,” Applied Acoustics, Vol. 53, No. 1-3, 1998, pp. 77-94. doi:10.1016/S0003-682X(97)00039-X
[5] C. Madshus, F. Lovholt, A. Kaynia, L. R. Hole, K. Attenborough and S. Taherzadeh, “Air-Ground Interaction in Long Range Propagation of Low Frequency Sound and Vibration-Field Tests and Model Verification,” Applied Acoustics, Vol. 66, No. 5, 2005, pp. 553-578. doi:10.1016/j.apacoust.2004.09.006
[6] E. M. Salomons, “Computational Atmospheric Acoustics,” 1st Edition, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Berlin, 2001. doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0660-6
[7] D. N. Anderson, W. R. Walter, D. K. Fagan, T. M. Mercier and S. R. Taylor, “Regional Multi-Station Discriminants: Magnitude, Distance and Amplitude Corrections and Sources of Error,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 99, No. 2A, 2009, pp. 794-808. doi:10.1785/0120080014
[8] M. J. Crowder, “Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Dependent Observations,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (B), Vol. 38, No. 1, 1976, pp. 45-53.
[9] R. D. H. Heijmans and J. R. Magnus, “Consistent Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Dependent Observations: The General (Non-Normal) and the Normal Case,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 32, No. 2, 1986, pp. 253- 285. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(86)90040-0
[10] Y. R. Sarma, “Asymptotic Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators from Dependent Observations,” Statistics & Probability Letters, Vol. 4, No. 6, 1986, pp. 309-311. doi:10.1016/0167-7152(86)90050-7
[11] R. A. Lorentz, “Noise Abatement Investigation for the Bloodsworth Island Target Range: Description of the Test program and New Long Range Airblast Overpressure Prediction Method,” Technical Report, Naval Surface Weapons Center, Silver Springs, MD, 1981.
[12] D. C. Montgomery, “Design and Analysis of Experiments,” John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1984.
[13] D. J. Saunders and R. D. Ford, “A Study of the Reduction of Explosive Impulses by Finite Sized Barriers,” Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, Vol. 94, No. 5, 1993, pp. 2859-2875. doi:10.1121/1.407343
[14] R. Whitaker and P. Mutschlecner, “A Comparison of Infrasound Signals Refracted from Stratospheric and Thermospheric Altitudes,” Journal of Geophysical Re-search, Vol. 113, 2008, Article ID: D08117, 13 p.
[15] A. Le Pichon, L. Ceranna and J. Vergoz, “Incorporating Numerical Modeling into Estimates of the Detection Capability of the IMS Infrasound Network,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 117, 2012, Article ID: D05121, 12 p.

comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2020 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.