The development and validation of a risk score for predicting microalbuminuria in type 2 diabetic patients

Sirima Mongkolsomlit, Petch Rawdaree, Chulalux Komoltri, Chamaiporn Tawichasri, Jayanton Patumanond

Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand.
Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.
Department of Medicine, Bangkok Metropolitan Medical College and Vajira Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand.

DOI: 10.4236/jdm.2012.22036                

Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a prognostic scoring scheme for the prediction of microalbuminuria in type 2 diabetic patients of Thai descent. Methods: The clinical information from type 2 diabetic patients who were treated at community hospitals was used to develop a prediction model (derivation set). The model evaluated at a tertiary hospital (validation set). A stepwise logistic regression model was used to identify the independent risk variables from the derivation set and a simple point scoring system was derived from the beta-coefficients. The risk scoring scheme was validated by the validation set. Results: The risk scoring scheme is based on six risk predictors: the duration of diabetes, age at the onset of diabetes, systolic blood pressure, low density lipoprotein levels, creatinine levels, and alcohol consumption. The total score ranged from 0 to 11.5. The likelihood of microalbuminuria in patients with low risk (scores ≤ 2) was 0.28, with moderate risk (scores 2.5 to 5.5) was 0.86, and high risk (scores ≥ 6) was 7.36. The area under the ROC curve of the derivation set and validation set were 0.768 (95% CI 0.73 - 0.81) and 0.758 (95% CI 0.70 - 0.80), respectively. Conclusion: Our scoring system is a simple and reasonably accurate method for predicting the future presence of microalbuminuria in type 2 diabetic patients.

Keywords

Microalbuminuria; Risk Score; Type 2 Diabetes; RIsk Factor; Scoring Scheme

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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