Open Journal of Social Sciences

Volume 2, Issue 11 (November 2014)

ISSN Print: 2327-5952   ISSN Online: 2327-5960

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.73  Citations  

Beyond the Modernization Theory: So-cio-Demographic Changes, Economic Structure and Forest Transition in a Multi-Dimensional Time-Series Analysis for Italy

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DOI: 10.4236/jss.2014.211024    3,781 Downloads   4,824 Views  Citations

ABSTRACT

In the light of the modernization theory, the present paper proposes an empirical assessment of the population-economy-environment nexus in Italy by investigating the historical trends (1862- 2009) in 58 variables describing five themes (environment, demography, education, trade, agriculture). Socioeconomic variables representing changes in population structure and demographic dynamics compared with indicators of forest expansion allowed verifying the temporal coherence between demographic and forest transitions at the country scale. The study develops an exploratory data analysis framework based on principal component analysis, hierarchical and non-hiera- rchical clustering and identifies four homogeneous time intervals (1862-1899, 1900-1930, 1931- 1970, 1971-2009) in socioeconomic and environmental attributes. Different trends (positive linear, negative linear and non-linear) in the studied variables were identified through hierarchical clustering.

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Ferrara, A. , Salvati, L. , Becagli, C. and Bertini, G. (2014) Beyond the Modernization Theory: So-cio-Demographic Changes, Economic Structure and Forest Transition in a Multi-Dimensional Time-Series Analysis for Italy. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 2, 183-194. doi: 10.4236/jss.2014.211024.

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