Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection

Volume 7, Issue 9 (September 2019)

ISSN Print: 2327-4336   ISSN Online: 2327-4344

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.98  Citations  

Estimating the Probability of Earthquake Occurrence and Return Period Using Generalized Linear Models

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DOI: 10.4236/gep.2019.79002    758 Downloads   1,698 Views  Citations
Author(s)

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the frequency of an earthquake occurrence and magnitude relationship has been modeled with generalized linear models for the set of earthquake data of Nepal. A goodness of fit of a statistical model is applied for generalized linear models and considering the model selection information criterion, Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion, generalized Poisson regression model has been selected as a suitable model for the study. The objective of this study is to determine the parameters (a and b values), estimate the probability of an earthquake occurrence and its return period using a Poisson regression model and compared with the Gutenberg-Richter model. The study suggests that the probabilities of earthquake occurrences and return periods estimated by both the models are relatively close to each other. The return periods from the generalized Poisson regression model are comparatively smaller than the Gutenberg-Richter model.

Share and Cite:

Noora, S. (2019) Estimating the Probability of Earthquake Occurrence and Return Period Using Generalized Linear Models. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 7, 11-24. doi: 10.4236/gep.2019.79002.

Cited by

[1] Study of Temporal Analysis on Earthquake Data and Statistical Seismology of Nepal
International Journal of Advances in Scientific Research and Engineering, 2021

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