Open Journal of Epidemiology

Volume 8, Issue 4 (November 2018)

ISSN Print: 2165-7459   ISSN Online: 2165-7467

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.57  Citations  

Visualizing Fit between Dengue and Climatic Variables on Capitals of the Brazilian Northeast Region by Generalized Additive Models

HTML  XML Download Download as PDF (Size: 1414KB)  PP. 259-275  
DOI: 10.4236/ojepi.2018.84020    494 Downloads   834 Views  

ABSTRACT

Recent analysis indicates that the numbers of dengue cases may be as high as 400 million/year in the world. According to the Ministry of Brazilian Health, in 2015, there were 1,621,797 probable cases of dengue in the country including all classifications except discarded, the highest number recorded in the historical series since 1990. Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission, especially using generalized models. In this study, Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was used associated to visreg package to understand the effect of climatic variables on capitals of Northeast Brazilian, from 2001 to 2012. From 12 climatic variables, it was verified that the relative humidity was the one that obtained the highest correlation to dengue. Afterwards, GAM associated with visreg was applied to understand the effects between them. Relative humidity explains the dengue incidence at an adjusted rate of 78.0% (in São Luis-MA) and 82.3% (in Teresina-PI) delayed in, respectively, -1 and -2 months.

Share and Cite:

Silva, J. , Karam, H. and Machado, C. (2018) Visualizing Fit between Dengue and Climatic Variables on Capitals of the Brazilian Northeast Region by Generalized Additive Models. Open Journal of Epidemiology, 8, 259-275. doi: 10.4236/ojepi.2018.84020.

Cited by

No relevant information.

Copyright © 2021 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.