Theoretical Economics Letters

Volume 8, Issue 6 (April 2018)

ISSN Print: 2162-2078   ISSN Online: 2162-2086

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.79  Citations  

Measuring and Comparing the Value-at-Risk Using GARCH and CARR Models for CSI 300 Index

HTML  XML Download Download as PDF (Size: 311KB)  PP. 1179-1187  
DOI: 10.4236/tel.2018.86078    444 Downloads   1,306 Views  
Author(s)

ABSTRACT

This article is the first to provide a detailed method for range-based CARR model to estimate the VaR and its out-of-sample prediction. In this paper, we use GARCH and CARR volatility models to compare the VaR’s out-of-sample forecasting performance. Using the historical simulation method as benchmark for VaR estimation, we found that the historical simulation approach for VaR measurement is more conservative than GARCH and CARR methods. The mean violation rate for the CARR VaRs is lower than that of the GARCH VaRs. Meanwhile, the CARR VaR is able to deliver lower required capital levels without producing bigger violations. This paper argued that the CARR VaR valuation approach is suitable as an internal model method for financial institution in VaR forecasting.

Cite this paper

Wu, C. (2018) Measuring and Comparing the Value-at-Risk Using GARCH and CARR Models for CSI 300 Index. Theoretical Economics Letters, 8, 1179-1187. doi: 10.4236/tel.2018.86078.

Cited by

No relevant information.

Copyright © 2020 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.