Author(s)

Jokull Johannesson

Institute of Strategy and Leadership, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most serious test of European security in the 21st century and the forgone conclusion is that Russia can easily prevail in the conflict, but this has not been the case. This article uses a contingency theory approach to report findings on the riddle why Russia has not easily defeated Ukraine. I report findings based on a contingency theoretical perspective that indicates Russian victory is unlikely because of negative contingencies having direct impact on the Russian economy including a sharp reduction in the value of the Russian ruble, the potential for political loss of support of the middle class for President Putin, diplomatic and political isolation and danger of escalation of the war, affecting Russia to a greater degree than the Ukraine.

Russia, Ukraine, Contingency Theory, War, Conflict, Global Affairs, Riddle

Johannesson, J. (2017) Russia-Ukraine War Is Not a Simple Riddle. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 5, 139-147. doi: 10.4236/jss.2017.510013.