Author(s)

Alejandra González, Ernesto Caetano^*

Institute of Geography, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.

The Sierra Norte de Puebla, Mexico, has a record of hundreds of mass removal processes triggered by rainfall, where the intensity and duration of the rain are the main mechanisms. In order to determine threshold values for precipitation as a cause of a landslide, the prior, marginal and conditional probabilities were calculated. A Bayesian method was used for one-dimensional (precipitation intensity) and two-dimensional (precipitation intensity and duration) analysis. This suggested a high probability of mass movement when the precipitation exceeds 60 mm within ten days. A proposed warning system is based on classes in which the threshold is exceeded.

Processes of Mass Removal, Thresholds, Probability, Bayesian Method, Sierra Norte De Puebla

González, A. and Caetano, E. (2017) Probabilistic Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Episodes in the Sierra Norte De Puebla, Mexico. Natural Resources, 8, 254-267. doi: 10.4236/nr.2017.83014.