Open Journal of Statistics

Volume 6, Issue 6 (December 2016)

ISSN Print: 2161-718X   ISSN Online: 2161-7198

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.78  Citations  h5-index & Ranking

A Markov Approach to Exchange Rate Sentiment Analysis of Major Global Currencies

HTML  XML Download Download as PDF (Size: 360KB)  PP. 1181-1195  
DOI: 10.4236/ojs.2016.66096    1,292 Downloads   2,065 Views  Citations


The paper deals with the analysis of exchange rates sentiments. In the approach suggested here a typical exchange rate sentiment is defined on the basis of certain function of mean and standard error of the logarithm of the ratio of successive daily exchange rates. Based on this surmise, the exchange rate sentiments are classified into various states, whereby states are named according to the perceptions of the market player. A Markov model is built to capture the uncertainties in exchange rates sentiments. The approach advocated here will be of interest to researchers, exchange rate traders and financial analysts. As an application of the proposed line of approach, we analyse weekly and monthly exchange rate sentiments that govern exchange rates of the major global currencies—EUR, GBP, SDR, YEN, ZAR, USD, using data from 2001-2012. Some interesting conclusions are revealed based on the data analysis approach advocated in this paper.

Share and Cite:

Madhava Rao, K. and Ramachandran, A. (2016) A Markov Approach to Exchange Rate Sentiment Analysis of Major Global Currencies. Open Journal of Statistics, 6, 1181-1195. doi: 10.4236/ojs.2016.66096.

Cited by

[1] Empirical measures of symmetry of market sentiments
Cogent Economics & Finance, 2018

Copyright © 2020 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.