Open Journal of Modern Hydrology

Volume 6, Issue 3 (July 2016)

ISSN Print: 2163-0461   ISSN Online: 2163-0496

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.85  Citations  

Assessing the Performance of Two Hydrologic Models for Forecasting Daily Streamflows in the Cazones River Basin (Mexico)

HTML  XML Download Download as PDF (Size: 7924KB)  PP. 168-181  
DOI: 10.4236/ojmh.2016.63014    1,787 Downloads   2,604 Views  Citations

ABSTRACT

Floods have caused significant human and economic losses in the Cazones River Basin, located on the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this knowledge, steps towards the design and implementation of an early warning system for the Cazones are still a pending task. In this study we contributed by establishing a hydrological scheme for forecasting mean daily discharges in the Cazones Basin. For these purposes, we calibrated, validated and compared the HyMod model (HM) which is physics-based, and an autoregressive-based model coupled with the Discrete Kalman Filter (ARX-DKF). The ability of both models to accurately predict discharges proved satisfactory results during the validation period with RMSEHYMOD = 2.77 [mm/day]; and RMSEARX-DKF = [2.38 mm/day]. Further analysis based on a Streamflow Assimilation Ratio (SAR) revealed that both models underestimate the discharges in a similar proportion. This evaluation also showed that, under the most common conditions, the simpler stochastic model (ARX-DKF) performs better; however, under extreme hydrological conditions the deterministic HM model reveals a better performance. These results are discussed under the context of future applications and additional requirements needed to implement an early warning hydrologic system for the Cazones Basin.

Share and Cite:

González-Leiva, F. , Valdés-Pineda, R. , Valdés, J. and Ibáñez-Castillo, L. (2016) Assessing the Performance of Two Hydrologic Models for Forecasting Daily Streamflows in the Cazones River Basin (Mexico). Open Journal of Modern Hydrology, 6, 168-181. doi: 10.4236/ojmh.2016.63014.

Copyright © 2020 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.