Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation

Volume 4, Issue 3 (July 2016)

ISSN Print: 2327-4018   ISSN Online: 2327-4026

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.35  Citations  

A Model for the Risk of Microcephaly Induced by the Zika Virus (ZIKV)

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DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2016.43010    2,496 Downloads   4,002 Views  Citations

ABSTRACT

It has been introduced and analyzed a mathematical model based on integral equations, which turns into a dynamical system of non-linear differential equations to account for the risk of microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus. A specific pregnant women susceptible group has been accounted for. The epidemic threshold (basic reproduction number) has been obtained by implementing the next generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis with respect to each parameter has been applied to that threshold. Finally, the incidence to the exposure is obtained by performing several system simulations.

Share and Cite:

Pizza, D. , Loaiza, A. , Montoya, J. , Manrique, O. , Sossa, V. , Muñoz, C. , Raigosa, S. , Contreras, H. , Contreras, I. , Perea, M. and Enríquez, M. (2016) A Model for the Risk of Microcephaly Induced by the Zika Virus (ZIKV). Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation, 4, 109-117. doi: 10.4236/ojmsi.2016.43010.

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