Author(s)

Shichang Shen^*, Chao Feng

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Qinghai Nationalities University, Xining, China.

Since the 1980s, China’s commercial housing market has shown an unprecedented rapid development, and the commercial houses still has a high price. This paper studies the sales rate of commercial housing sales to find an appropriate model, and it analyzes the volatility of the commercial housing market to describe the sustainable development of the commercial housing market. By selecting month data of China’s commercial housing sales from January 2006 to October 2018, this paper uses EViews7.2 and the ARMA Model as the tool in order to establish EARCH(1,1) through the method of quantitative analysis. It is found that the yield of commercial housing sales has obvious cluster, asymmetry and leverage effect, and the impact of adverse news on the commercial housing market is more significant than the impact of favorable news.

Sales Volume of Commercial Housing, ARMA Model, EARCH Model, Leverage Effect

Shen, S. and Feng, C. (2019) Empirical Analysis of Commercial Housing Sales Based on EARCH(1,1) Model. Open Journal of Statistics, 9, 299-307. doi: 10.4236/ojs.2019.92021.