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Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall

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DOI: 10.4236/ojepi.2016.61007    3,770 Downloads   4,674 Views
Author(s)
Hugo Abi Karam1*, Julio Cesar Barreto da Silva2, Augusto José Pereira Filho3, José Luis Flores Rojas3

Affiliation(s)

1Instituto de Geociências, IGEO-CCMN-UFRJ, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
2Departmento de Estatística, CCET-UFRN, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brasil.
3Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, IAG-USP, Universidade de Sao Paulo, SP, Brasil.

ABSTRACT

In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.

KEYWORDS

Modelling Dengue Epidemics, Environmental Enthalpy, Environmental Precursors of Dengue Epidemics

Cite this paper

Karam, H. , Silva, J. , Filho, A. and Rojas, J. (2016) Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall. Open Journal of Epidemiology, 6, 50-79. doi: 10.4236/ojepi.2016.61007.
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