This research assessed empirically the
quantitative analysis of some selected food imports of Nigeria (rice, wheat and
sugar). Time series data were used to examine the determinant of total food
imports and the trend in the quantity of the food imported. The secondary data
were obtained from institutional and national database over 1981-2010.
Descriptive statistics, regression and correlation analysis were used as analytical
tools. Statistical analysis shows that food deficit began in the 1970’s, when
Nigeria started the importation of food to feed the country. The result of the
correlation analysis shows that the postulated determinants of food imports
were positively correlated with the quantity of food import. The test for the
individual variables shows that; national income explains 40%, external
reserves explains 38%, food production index explains 46%, population explains
58% and exchange rate explains 74% of the total variation in the quantity of
food import. The over-all goodness of fit of the regression analysis result
shows that, the postulated regressors namely, relative price, national income, external reserves, lagged index of domestic
food production, population estimate and exchange rate explained approximately
70% of the variability in the quantity of the selected food imports for the
period of study. Consequently, there is the need for Nigeria to shift base from
the ideology of nationalist orientation, as well as afro centric point of view
and move towards unrestrained export-led growth that seeks to develop that
market as the first option with corresponding development in international
trade. This is however possible by limiting the importation of foods/raw
materials that can be sourced for locally, increasing the domestic production
of food generally and maintaining a healthy foreign investment with developed
countries as a short term measure while in the long run, diversification of the
economy, massive investment in agriculture and
introduction of population control measures could serve as saviours to lower
the rate of increase in food import demand.