Study on the Traffic Energy System Model in Urumqi Based on Scenario Analysis Methods

Xiaowei Sun, Yulei Xie, Zhenghui Fu, Hongkuan Zang

Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing, China.
North China Electric Power University, Key Laboratory of Regional Energy System Optimization, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China.

DOI: 10.4236/epe.2013.54B047                

Abstract

In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is proposed to solve the problem of the extreme weather of traffic, and three scenarios (i.e. 10%, 20% and 30%) of reductions of traffic flow quantity and pollutant emission are examined. The results demonstrate that the medium-type coach will be the promising selection under different scenarios especially in the extreme conditions and the traffic flow reduction scenarios are not the better option for the decision owing to the same cost under the different reduction levels. Moreover, encouraging the medium-type coach traveling and restricting the small vehicle driving would be attractive alternatives for the extreme situation. The proposed model would provide reasonable references for decision makers.

Keywords

Traffic Energy System; Urumqi; Scenario Analysis; Pollutant Emission; Traffic Flow Quantity

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	C. L. Lou, “Study on the Relationship of Transportation Mode and Energy Consumption and Exhaust Pollution,” Beijing Jiaotong University, 2007.
[2]	P. E. Benson, “CALINE4–A Dispersion Model for Predicting Air Pollutant Concentrations near Roadways,” Federal Highway Administration Report FHWA/CA/TL-84/15, California State Department of Transportation, Sacramento, California (NTIS PB 85 211498/AS), 1984.
[3]	L. X. Fu, J. M. Hao, D. Q. He, K. B. He and P. Li, “Assessment of Vehicular pollution in China,” Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, Vol. 51, No. 5, 2001, pp. 658-668. doi:10.1080/10473289.2001.10464300
[4]	K. Zi, Y. Q. Huang, X. K. Tu and R. F. Yang, “Research of Driving Cycle and Emission Pollutant of Vehicles in Ningbo City,” Chinese Internal Combustion Engine Engineering, Vol. 27, No. 1, 2006, pp. 81-84.
[5]	W. J. Zhao, “Research on Atmospheric Environmental Carrying Capacity of Urban Road Traffic,” Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University, 2007.
[6]	C. K. Chan and X. H. Yao, “Air Pollution in Mega Cities in China,” Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 42, No. 1, 2008, pp. 1-42. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.09.003
[7]	K. B. He, H. Huo and Q. Zhang, “Urban Air Pollution in China: Current Status, Characteristics, and Progress,” Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Vol. 27, No. 3, 2002, pp. 397-431. doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.27.122001.083421
[8]	J. M. Hao, L. X. Fu, K. B. He and Y. Wu, “Pollution Control of Urban Motor Vehicle Emission,” Beijing: China Environmental Science Press, 2001.
[9]	B. G. Wei, F. Q. Jiang, X. M. Li and S. Y. Mu, “Spatial Distribution and Contamination Assessment of Heavy Metals in Urban Road Dusts from Urumqi,” NW China Microchemical Journal, Vol. 93, 2009, pp. 147-152. doi:10.1016/j.microc.2009.06.001
[10]	H. Nakamura, “Social Economic Evaluation of Road Investment,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 69,1998, pp. 103-121.
[11]	J. Duo, “Study on Diffusion of Motor Vehicle Emission in the Time and Space Based on GIS on the Youhao Road ,” Urumqi Urumqi: Xinjing University, 2006.