Regression Analysis of Electric Power Market Price of JEPX

Hajime Miyauchi, Tetsuya Misawa

1Department of Frontier Technology for Energy and Devices, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan 2Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University, Nagoya, Japan.

DOI: 10.4236/jpee.2014.24065                

Abstract

The deregulation of electric power industries is introducing around the world and electric power markets are operated under the deregulation. Also in Japan, JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange) operates a day-ahead market since April 2005. We have already analyzed the electric power market prices in the several markets including JEPX by autoregressive models. We compose simple regression equations, of which a dependent variable is the market price and explanatory variables are the demand and the market price of 24 hours ago. In this paper, we analyze JEPX price data in summer seasons from 2007 to 2013. In this period, the JEPX price is affected by many social phenomena such as Lehman Shock and East Japan earthquake disasters. We compare the determination coefficient and the coefficients of regression and investigate the change of coefficients over the years.

Keywords

Market Price; JEPX; Autoregressive Model; Bidding Volume; Change over the Years; ADF Test

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

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