Rainfall Variability and Its Impact on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya

C. A. Shisanya, C. Recha, A. Anyamba

.

DOI: 10.4236/ijg.2011.21004                

Abstract

Agriculture in arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya is depends on seasonal characteristics of rainfall. This study seeks to distinguish components of regional climate variability, especially El Niño Southern Oscillation events and their impact on the growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Datasets used were: 1) rainfall (1961-2003) and 2) NDVI (1981-2003). Results indicate that climate variability is persistent in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya and continues to affect vegetation condition and consequently crop production. Correlation calculations between seasonal NDVI and rainfall shows that the October-December (OND) growing season is more reliable than March-May (MAM) season. Results show that observed biomass trends are not solely explained by rainfall variability but also changes in land cover and land use. Results show that El Niño and La Niña events in southeast Kenya vary in magnitude, both in time and space as is their impact on vegetation; and that variation in El Niño intensity is higher than during La Niña events. It is suggested that farmers should be encouraged to increase use of farm input in their agricultural enterprises during the OND season; particularly when above normal rains are forecast. The close relationship between rainfall and NDVI yield ground for improvement in the prediction of local level rainfall. Effective dissemination of this information to stakeholders will go along way to ameliorate the suffering of many households and enable government to plan ahead of a worse season. This would greatly reduce the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate related disasters by improving their management.

Keywords

Semi-Arid, NDVI Time Series, Southeast Kenya

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	C. A. Shisanya, “Chances and Risks of Maize and Bean Growing in the Semi-Arid Areas of Southeast Kenya during Expected Deficient, Normal and above Normal Rainfall of the Short Rains Seasons,” Materialien zur Ostafrika-Forsc-hung, Heft 14, Trier, 1996.
[2]	G. A. Keya, “Impact of Land Use Patterns and Climate on the Vegetation Ecology of Arid and Semi-Arid Nomadic Pastoral Ecosystems of Northern Kenya,” Materialien zur Ostafrika-Forschung, Heft 17, Trier, 1998.
[3]	C. A. Shisanya, “Farming Systems Characteristics in Semi-Arid Southeast Kenya: Resource Base, Production Dynamics and Way Forward,” Chemchemi, Vol. 1, 1999, pp. 56-74.
[4]	Republic of Kenya, “Machakos District Development Plan 2002-2008: Effective Management for Sustainable Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction,” Government Printer, Nairobi, 2002.
[5]	S. N. Nicholson, “Climate and Environmental Change in Africa during the Last Two Centuries,” Climate Research, Vol. 14, 2001, pp. 123-144. doi:10.3354/cr017123
[6]	P. A. Oram, “Sensitivity of Agricultural Production to Climatic Change, An Update,” Climate and Food Security, IRRI, Manila, Philippines, 1989, pp. 25-44.
[7]	J. W. Hansen, “Realizing the Potential Benefits of Climate Prediction to Agriculture: Issues, Approaches, Challenges,” Agricultural Systems, Vol. 74, 2002, pp. 309-330. doi:10.1016/S0308-521X(02)00043-4
[8]	A. J. Challinov, J. M. Slingo, T. R. Wheeler, P. Q. Craufurd and D. I. F. Grimes, “Toward a Combined Sea- sonal Weather and Crop Productivity Forecasting System: Determination of the Working Spatial Scale,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 42, No. 2, 2003, pp. 175-192. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0175:TACSWA>2.0.CO;2
[9]	A. A. Arthur, S. Jagtap, C. Rosenzweig, “Spatio-Temporal Effects of El Ni?o Events on Rainfall and Maize Yield in Kenya,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 22, 2002, No. 15, pp. 1849-1860. 2002.
[10]	C. F. Ropelewski and M. S. Halpert., “Global Regional Scale Rainfall Patterns Associated With El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 115, 1987, PP. 1606-1626.
[11]	C. F. Ropelewski and M. S. Halpert, “Quantifying Southern Oscillation-Rainfall Relationships,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 9, 1996, pp. 1043-1059. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1043:QSOPR>2.0.CO;2
[12]	L. J. Ogallo, “Relationship between Seasonal Rainfall in East Africa and Southern Oscillation,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 8, 1988, pp. 34-43.
[13]	B. Sultan, C. Baron, M. Dingkuhn, B. Sarr and S. Janicot, “Agricultural Impacts of Large-Scale Variability of the West African Monsoon,” Agricultural and Forestry Meteorology, Vol. 128, No. 1-2, 2005, pp. 93-110. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.08.005
[14]	M.V. K. Sivakumar, “Predicting Rainy Season Potential from the Onset of Rains in Southern Sahelian and Sudanian Climatic Zones of West Africa,” Agricultural and Forestry Meteorology, Vol. 42, 1988, pp. 295-305. doi:10.1016/0168-1923(88)90039-1
[15]	S. E. Nicholson, “Climate, Drought and Famine in Africa,” In A. Hansen and D.E McMillan, Eds., Food in Sub-Sa- haran Africa. Lynne Rienner, Boulder, 1986, pp. 107- 128.
[16]	F. Bazzaz and W. Sombroek, “Global climate change and agricultural production. In FAO, Ed., Direct and Indirect Effects of Changing Hydrological Pedological and Plant Physiological Processes,” Wiley/FAO, Rome, 1996, pp. 66-80.
[17]	S. G. H. Philander, “El Ni?o and La Ni?a Predictable Climate Fluctuations. Reports on Prog,” Physics, Vol. 62, 1999, No. 2, pp. 123- 142.
[18]	S. J. Mason, “Seasonal Forecasting of South African Rainfall Using a Non-Linear Discriminant Analysis Model,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 18, No. 2, 1998, pp. 147-164. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199802)18:2<147::AID-JOC229>3.0.CO;2-6
[19]	L. Goddard, S. J. Mason, S. E. Zebiak, C. F. Ropelewski, R. Basher and M. A. Cane, “Current Approaches to Seasonal-to-Inter Annual Climate Predictions,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 21, No. 9, 2001, pp. 1111- 1152. doi:10.1002/joc.636
[20]	A. Wannebo and C. Rosenzweig, “Remote sensing of US Cornbelt Areas Sensitive to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,” International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 24, 2003, pp. 2055-2067. doi:10.1080/01431160210154786
[21]	J. W. Hansen, “Integrating Seasonal Climate Prediction and Agricultural Models for Insights into Agricultural Practice,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Vol. 360, No. 10, 2005, pp. 2037-2047. doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1747
[22]	P. J. M. Cooper, J. Dimes, K. P. C. Rao, B. Shapiro, B. Shiferaw and S. Twomlow, “Coping Better with Current Climatic Variability in the Rain-Fed Farming Systems of the Sub-Sahara Africa: An Essential First Step in Adapting to Future Climate Change,” Agriculture Ecosystem and Environment, Vol. 126, No. 1-2, 2008, pp. 24-35. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.007
[23]	J. W. Hansen and M. Indeje, “Linking Dynamic Seasonal Climate Forecasts with Crop Simulation for Maize Yield Prediction in Semi-Arid Kenya,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 125, 2004, pp. 143-157. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.02.006
[24]	C. C. Mutai, M. N. Ward and A. W. Coleman, “Towards the Prediction of the East Africa Short Rains Based on Sea-Surface Temperature-Atmosphere Coupling,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 18, 1998, pp. 975- 997. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199807)18:9<975::AID-JOC259>3.0.CO;2-U
[25]	M. Indeje, F. H. M. Semazzi and L. J. Ogallo, “ENSO signals in East African Rainfall and Their Prediction Potentials,” International Journal Climatology, Vol. 20, 2000, pp. 19-46. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200001)20:1<19::AID-JOC449>3.0.CO;2-0
[26]	K. Tilahun, “Analysis of Rainfall Climate and Evapo- Transpiration in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Ethiopia Using Data over the Last Half a Century,” Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 64, 2006, pp. 474-487. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.06.013
[27]	L. J. Ogallo, “Regional Classification of East African Rainfall Stations Into Homogenous Groups Using the Method of Principal Component Analysis. In S. Ikeda, Ed., Statistical Climatology: Development in Atmospheric Science,” Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1980, pp. 255-266.
[28]	National Center for Environmental Prediction, “Cold and Warm Episodes by Season,” Internet available, 2005. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/comment-form.html
[29]	A. Anyamba and C. J. Tucker, “Analysis of Sahelian vegetation dynamics using NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981-2003,” Journal of Arid Environment, Vol. 63, No. 3, 2005, pp. 596- 614. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.007
[30]	F. Kogan, “NOAA Plays Leadership Role in Developing Satellite Technology for Drought Watch. Earth Observation Magazine,” EMO Inc., Littleton, USA, 1994, pp. 18-20.
[31]	J. Tarpley, S. Schneider and R. Money, “Global Vegetation Indices from Noaa-7 Meteorological Satellites,” Journal of Climatology and Applied Meteorology, Vol. 23, No. 3, 1984, pp. 491-497. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0491:GVIFTN>2.0.CO;2
[32]	J. M. Hayes and W. L. Decker, “Using NOAA AVHRR Data to Estimate Maize Production in the United States Corn Belt,” International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 17, No. 16, 1996, pp. 3189-3200. doi:10.1080/01431169608949138
[33]	T. I. Gray and D. B. Tapley, “Vegetation Health: Natures Climate Monitor,” Advances in Space Research, Vol. 5, No. 6, 1985, pp. 371-377. doi:10.1016/0273-1177(85)90343-6
[34]	C. J. Tucker, B. N. Holben, J. H. Elgin and J. E. McMurtrey, “Relationship of Spectral Dat a to Grain Yield Variation,” Photogrammetric and Engineering & Remote Sensing, Vol. 46, No. 5, 1985, pp. 657-666.
[35]	J. R. G. Townshend, C. O. Justice, “Analysis of the Dynamics of African Vegetation Using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,” International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 7, No. 11, 1986, pp. 1435-1445. doi:10.1080/01431168608948946
[36]	S. E. Nicholson, M. L. Davenport and A. R. Malo, “A Comparison of Vegetative Response to Rainfall in the Sahel and East Africa Using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from NOAA-AVHRR,” Climate Change, Vol. 17, 1990, pp. 209-241. doi:10.1007/BF00138369
[37]	C. J. Tucker and S. E. Nicholson, “Variations in the Size of the Sahara Desert from 1980 to 1997,” Ambio, Vol. 28, 1999, No. 7, pp. 587-591.
[38]	B. L. Henricksen and J. W. Durkin, “Growing Period And Drought Early Warning in Africa Using Satellite Data,” International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 7, No. 11, 1986, pp. 1583-1603. doi:10.1080/01431168608948955
[39]	C. F. Hutchinson, “Use of Satellite Data for Famine Warning in Sub-Saharan Africa,” International Journal Remote Sensing, Vol. 12, No. 6, 1991, pp. 1405-1421. doi:10.1080/01431169108929733
[40]	J. U. Hielkema, S. D. Prince and W. L. Astle, “Rainfall and Vegetation Monitoring in the Savanna Zone of the Democratic Republic of Sudan Using the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer,” International Journal Remote Sensing, Vol. 7, 1986, pp. 1583-1603. doi:10.1080/01431168608948950
[41]	A. Anyamba and J. R. Eastman, “Interannual Variability of NDVI over Africa and Its Relationship to El Ni?o/- Southern Oscillation,” International Journal Remote Sensing, Vol. 17, No. 13, 1996, pp. 2533-2548. doi:10.1080/01431169608949091
[42]	R. B. Myneni, S. O. Los and C. J. Tucker, “Satellite-Based Identification of Linked Vegetation Index and Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Areas from 1981 to 1990 for Africa, Australia and South America,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 23, 1996, pp. 729-732. doi:10.1029/96GL00266
[43]	A. Anyamba, C. J. Tucker and R. Mahoney, “From El Ni?o to La Ni?a: Vegetation Response Patterns over East and Southern Africa during the 1997-2000 Period,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, No. 22, 2002, pp. 3096-3103. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3096:FENOTL>2.0.CO;2
[44]	R. R. Nemani, C. D. Keeling, H. Hashimoto, W. M. Jolly, S. C. Piper, C. J. Tucker, R. B. Myneni and S. W. Running, “Climate-Driven Increasesin Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999,” Science, Vol. 300, 2003, pp. 1560-1563. doi:10.1126/science.1082750
[45]	L. Eklund and L. Olsson, “Vegetation Index Trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, No. 5625, 2003, p. 1430. doi:10.1029/2002GL016772
[46]	D. A. Slayback, J. E. Pinzon, S. O. Los and C. J. Tucker, “Northern Hemisphere Photosynthetic Trends 1982- 1999,” Global Change Biology, Vol. 9, 2003, pp. 1-15. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00507.x
[47]	R. Jaetzold, H. Schmidt, B. Hornetz and Shisanya C. A. Eds., “Farm Management Handbook of Kenya, Vol. II/C: East Kenya: Natural Conditions and Farm Management Information,” Ministry of Agriculture/GTZ, Nairobi, 2007.
[48]	J. Phillips and P. McIntyre, “ENSO and Inter Annual Rainfall Variability in Uganda: Implications for Agricultural Management. International,” Journal of Climatology, Vol. 20, 2000, pp. 171-182. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200002)20:2<171::AID-JOC471>3.0.CO;2-O
[49]	A. Patt and C. Gwata, “Effective Seasonal Climate Forecast Applications: Examining Constraints for Subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 12, 2002, pp. 185-195. doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00013-4
[50]	C. A. Shisanya, “The 1983-1984 Drought in Kenya,” Journal of Eastern African Research & Development, Vol. 20, 1990, pp. 127-148.
[51]	C. F. Hutchinson, “The Sahelian Desertification Debate: A View from the American South-West,” Journal of Arid Environment, Vol. 33, No. 4, 1996, pp. 519-524. doi:10.1006/jare.1996.0087
[52]	S. Odingo, W. Nyakwada and J. K. Njihia, “Weather and Climate Sector,” In IGAD and DMCN, Factoring of weather and climate information and products into disaster management policy: A contribution to strategies for disaster management, Nairobi, Kenya, 2002, pp. 1-33.
[53]	C. Tottrup, and M. S. Rasmussen, “Mapping Long-Term Changes in Savannah Crop Productivity in Senegal through Trend Analysis of Time Series of Remote Sensing Data,” Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, Vol. 103, No. 3, 2004, pp. 545-560. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2003.11.009
[54]	A. K. Thiam, “The Causes and Spatial Patterns of Land Degradation Risk in Southern Mauritania using Multi- Temporal AVHRR NDVI Imagery and Field Data,” Land Degradation and Development, Vol. 14, 2003, pp. 133- 142. doi:10.1002/ldr.533
[55]	A. Anyamba, C. J Tucker and J. R. Eastman, “NDVI Anomaly Pattern over Africa during the 1997/98 ENSO Warm Event,” International. Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 24, No. 10, 2001, pp. 2055-2067.
[56]	G. Wang and L. You, “Delayed Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Biosphere Productivity in Asia,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, No. 1-4, 2004.
[57]	C. C. Funk and M. E. Brown, “Intra-Seasonal Ndvi Change Projection in Semi-Arid Africa,” Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 101, 2006, pp. 249-256. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2005.12.014
[58]	W. Nyakwada, “Predictability of Seasonal Rainfall over Eastern Africa (DMC Climate Fora),” 1999.
[59]	Y. Seleshi and U. Zanke, “Recent Changes in Rainfall and Rainy Days in Ethiopia,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 24, No. 8, 2004, pp. 973-983. doi:10.1002/joc.1052