A Framework for Determining the Period When a Perennial Crop Is No Longer Profitable after a Disease Outbreak

Mauricio Mosquera, Kelly Grogan, Edward Evans, Thomas Spreen

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Colombian Oil Palm Research Center, Cenipalma, Bogotá DC, Colombia.

DOI: 10.4236/tel.[phone]                

Abstract

A theoretical approach is developed for finding the optimal age to remove an orchard (or plantation) to maximize net present value, after a disease attack. The model is a bioeconomic model that considers the effects of disease management on disease spread and the effect of the disease on yields. This provides an optimal disease management strategy and optimal rotation period. Our work makes an important contribution to the literature. To the best of our knowledge, no previous work has considered the simultaneous question of optimal disease management and replanting age when disease is present in perennial crops. An empirical application is presented for the case of pudricióndelcogollo, a lethal and contagious disease that threatens oil palm plantations in Colombia. The model could be applied to a wide range of perennial crop diseases.

Keywords

Perennial Crops; Plant Disease; Disease Management; Oil Palm; Economic Optimization Model; Optimal Control Model; Replanting

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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