Share This Article:

A Geostatistical Approach to the Seasonal Precipitation Effect on Boro Rice Production in Bangladesh

Abstract Full-Text HTML Download Download as PDF (Size:3448KB) PP. 443-462
DOI: 10.4236/ijg.2012.33048    5,478 Downloads   9,133 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

Geographical assessments on the relationship between climate variability and crop production are important for planning adaptation programs to climate change impacts on Asian rice production. This paper analyses the seasonal precipitation consequences to irrigated crop yields, in opposition to the idea that irrigated crop yields are not affected by precipitation changes. Geostatistical methods are applied to assess changes in the patterns of seasonal precipitation and corresponding changes in the Boro crop production in Bangladesh. Surfaces depicting changes in the monsoon, non-monsoon and total precipitation from 2006 to 2007, and changes in three varieties of Boro crop yield and Total Boro yield from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 crop year are generated through Splines, Inverse Distance Weighting and Ordinary Kriging methods. Performance evaluation of these models is also performed. The relationships between the surfaces of different precipitation seasons and the surfaces of different Boro yield seasons are then assessed. The results show that there is a significant correlation between seasonal precipitation changes and Boro yield changes with notable correlation coefficients and similarity in the patterns. A significant conformity of the high precipitation zones to the high Boro yielding zones is also depicted.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Cite this paper

A. Bhowmik and A. Costa, "A Geostatistical Approach to the Seasonal Precipitation Effect on Boro Rice Production in Bangladesh," International Journal of Geosciences, Vol. 3 No. 3, 2012, pp. 443-462. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2012.33048.

References

[1] A. G. Journel and C. J. Huijbregts, “Mining Geostatistics,” Academic Press, London, 1978.
[2] P. Goovaerts, “Geostatistics for Natural Resources Evaluation. Applied Geostatistics Series,” Oxford University Press, New York, 1997.
[3] P. Goovaerts, “Geostatistical Tools for Characterizing the Spatial Variability of Microbiological and Physico-Chemical Soil Properties,” Biology and Fertility of Soils, Vol. 27, No. 4, 1998, pp. 315-334. doi:10.1007/s003740050439
[4] D. L. Phillips, J. Dolph and D. Marks, “A Comparison of Geostatistical Procedures for Spatial Analysis of Precipitation in Mountainous Terrain,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 58, No. 1-2, 1992, pp. 119-141. doi:10.1016/0168-1923(92)90114-J
[5] E. P. J. Boer, K. M. de Beurs and A. D. Hartkamp, “Kriging and Thin Plate Splines for Mapping Climate Variables,” International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Vol. 3, No. 2, 2001, pp. 146-154. doi:10.1016/S0303-2434(01)85006-6
[6] M. Perry and D. Hollis, “The Generation of Monthly Gridded Datasets for a Range of Climatic Variables over the UK,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 25, No. 8, 2005, pp. 1041-1054. doi:10.1002/joc.1161
[7] A. C. Costa, R. Dur?o, M. J. Pereira and A. Soares, “Using Stochastic Space-Time Models to Map Extreme Precipitation in Southern Portugal,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 8, No. 4, 2008, pp. 763-773. doi:10.5194/nhess-8-763-2008
[8] R. Dur?o, M. J. Pereira, A. C. Costa, J. Delgado, G. del Barrio and A. Soares, “Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Precipitation Extremes in Southern Portugal: A Geostatistical Assessment Study,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 30, No. 10, 2010, pp. 1526-1537.
[9] R. Khosla, D. G. Westfall, R. M. Reich, J. S. Mahal and W. J. Gangloff, “Spatial Variation and Site-Specific Management Zones,” In: M. A. Oliver, Ed., Geostatistical Ap- plications for Precision Agriculture, Springer, Dordrecht, 2010, pp. 195-219. doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9133-8_8
[10] P. Postiglione, R. Benedetti and F. Piersimoni, “Spatial Prediction of Agricultural Crop Yield,” In: R. Benedetti, M. Bee, G. Espa and F. Piersimoni, Eds., Agricultural Survey Methods, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester, 2010. doi:10.1002/9780470665480.ch22
[11] J. Reilly, P. H. Stone, C. E. Forest, M. D. Webster, H. D. Jacoby and R. G. Prinn, “Uncertainty and Climate Change Assessments”, Science, Vol. 293, No. 5529, 2001, pp. 430-433. doi:10.1126/science.1062001
[12] M. D. Webster, “Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to Policy-Makers and the Public,” Climatic Change, Vol. 61, 2003, pp. 1-8. doi:10.1023/A:1026351131038
[13] S. Dessai and M. Hulme, “Does Climate Adaptation Policy Need Probabilities?” Climate Policy, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2004, pp. 107-128.
[14] R. Wassmann, S. V. K. Jagadish, K. Sumfleth, H. Pathak, G. Howell, A. Ismail, R. Serraj, E. Redona, R. K. Singh and S. Heuer, “Regional Vulnerability of Climate Change Impacts on Asian Rice Production and Scope for Adaptation,” In: D. L. Sparks, Ed., Advances in Agronomy, Academic Press, London, Vol. 102, 2009, pp. 91-133.
[15] P. G. Jones and P. K. Thornton, “The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production in Africa and Latin America in 2055,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2003, pp. 51-59. doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00090-0
[16] D. B. Lobell, M. B., Burke, C. Tebaldi, M. D. Mastrandrea, W. P. Falcon and R. L. Naylor, “Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030,” Science, Vol. 319, No. 5863, 2008, pp. 607-610. doi:10.1126/science.1152339
[17] M. L. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, M. Livermore and G. Fischer, “Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production under SRES Emissions and Socio-Economic Scenarios,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2004, pp. 53-67. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008
[18] P. K. Thornton, P. G. Jones, G. Alagarswamy and J. Andresen, “Spatial Variation of Crop Yield Response to Climate Change in East Africa,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 19, No. 1, 2009, pp. 54-65. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.08.005
[19] I. M. Faisal and S. Parveen, “Food Security in the Face of Climate Change, Population Growth, and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh,” Environmental Management, Vol. 34, No. 4, 2004, pp. 487-498. doi:10.1007/s00267-003-3066-7
[20] S. A. Ahmed, N. S. Diffenbaugh and T. W. Hertel, “Climate Volatility Deepens Poverty Vulnerability in Developing Countries,” Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2009, Article ID: 034004. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/034004
[21] W. Yu, M. Alam, A. Hassan, A. S. Khan and C. Rosen- zweig, “Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh. Earthscan Climate Series,” Earthscan Publications, London, 2010, pp. 144.
[22] S. G. Hussain, “Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production and Food Security in Bangladesh,” In: R. Lal, Ed., Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia, Springer, Dordrecht, 2011, pp. 459-476.
[23] S. Rahman, “Determinants of Crop Choices by Bangla- deshi Farmers: A Bivariate Probit Analysis,” Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2008, pp. 29-42.
[24] S. Rahman, “Six Decades of Agricultural Land Use Change in Bangladesh: Effects on Crop Diversity, Productivity, Food Availability and the Environment, 1948-2006,” Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, Vol. 31, No. 2, 2010, pp. 254-269. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9493.2010.00394.x
[25] Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, “Area, Yield Rates and Productions of Major Crops 2007-2010, Summary Crop Statistics,” 2011. http://www.bbs.gov.bd/WebTestApplication/userfiles/Image/AgricultureCensus/All_Crops_summary_09-10.pdf
[26] S. A. Sattar, “Bridging the Rice Yield Gap in Bangladesh,” In: M. K. Papademetriou, F. J. Dent and E. M. Herath, Eds., Bridging the Rice Yield Gap in the Asia-Pacific Region, RAP Publication, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, 2000, pp. 58-68.
[27] H. M. Naser, N. C. Basak and M. F. Islam, “Effect of Rice Straw and Chemical Fertilizers on the Productivity and Economics of Boro Rice-Transplanted Aman Rice System,” Journal of Biological Sciences, Vol. 1, No. 9, 2001, pp. 831-834. doi:10.3923/jbs.2001.831.834
[28] S. Shahid, “Rainfall Variability and the Trends of Wet and Dry Periods in Bangladesh,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 30, No. 15, 2010, pp. 2299-2313. doi:10.1002/joc.2053
[29] N. M. Mia, “Variations of Temperature of Bangladesh,” Proceedings of the Seminar on Climate Variability in the South Asian Region and Its Impacts, Dhaka, 10-12 De- cember 2002.
[30] S. Shahid, “Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Water Demand of Dry Season Boro Rice in Northwest Bangladesh,” Climatic Change, Vol. 105, No. 3-4, 2011, pp. 433-453. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9895-5
[31] Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, “Statistical Pocket Book- 2009,” 2009. http://www.bbs.gov.bd/WebTestApplication/userfiles/Image/SubjectMatterDataIndex/pk_book_09.pdf
[32] M. Lal, “Implications of Climate Change in Sustained Agricultural Productivity in South Asia,” Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 11, No. 1, 2011, pp. 79-94. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0166-9
[33] W. May, “Simulation of the Variability and Extremes of Daily Rainfall during the Indian Summer Monsoon for Present and Future Times in a Global Time-Slice Experiment,” Climate Dynamics, Vol. 22, No. 2-3, 2004, pp. 183-204. doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0373-x
[34] S. A. Wasimi, “Climate Change Trends in Bangladesh” Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Water and Flood Management, Institute of Water and Flood Management, BUET, Dhaka, Vol. 1, 2009, pp. 203-210.
[35] R. P. Allan and B. J. Soden, “Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes,” Science, Vol. 321, No. 5895, 2008, pp. 1481-1484. doi:10.1126/science.1160787
[36] S. B. Murshed, A. K. M. Islam and M. S. A. Khan, “Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity in Bangladesh,” Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Water & Flood Management, Dhaka, 8-10 January 2011, p. 8.
[37] H. S. M. Faruque and M. L. Ali, “Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia,” In: M. M. Q. Mirza and Q. K. Ahmad, Eds., Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia, A. A. Balkema Publishers, Leiden, 2005, pp. 231-254.
[38] S. Shahid, “Recent Trends in the Climate of Bangladesh,” Climate Research, Vol. 42, No. 3, 2010, pp. 185-193. doi:10.3354/cr00889
[39] S. Shahid, X. Chen and M. K. Hazarika, “Evaluation of Groundwater Quality for Irrigation in Bangladesh Using Geographic Information System,” Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, Vol. 54, No. 1, 2006, pp. 3-14.
[40] P. Goovaerts, “Ordinary Cokriging Revisited,” Mathe- matical Geology, Vol. 30, No. 1, 1998, pp. 21-42. doi:10.1023/A:1021757104135
[41] K. Johnston, J. M. Ver Hoef, K. Krivoruchko and N. Lucas, “Using ArcGIS? Geostatistical Analyst,” ESRI, Redlands, 2001.
[42] J. Duchon, “Splines Minimizing Rotation-Invariant Semi-Norms in Sobolev Spaces,” Constructive Theory of Functions of Several Variables, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, Springer, Berlin, Vol. 571, 1977, pp. 85-100. doi:10.1007/BFb0086566
[43] N. Cressie, “Statistics for Spatial Data,” Revised Edition, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1993.
[44] J. Chiles and P. Delfiner, “Geostatistics. Modeling Spatial Uncertainty,” John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1999. doi:10.1002/9780470316993
[45] D. Shepard, “A Two-Dimensional Interpolation Function for Irregularly-Spaced Data,” Proceedings of the 23rd ACM National Conference, ACM, New York, 1968, pp. 517-524.
[46] E. Linacre, “Climate Data and Resources: A Reference and Guide,” Routledge, London, 1992.
[47] IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” In: M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E. Hanson, Eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007, pp. 7-22.

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2018 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.