Multi-parametric analysis for forecasting volcanic and seismic phenomena

F. Patania, A. Gagliano, G. Imme, S. La Delfa, S. Lo Nigro, D. Morelli, F. Nocera, A. Galesi, G. Patane

University of Catania - Department of Geology Science, Corso Italia 55, 95129 – Catania (Italy).
University of Catania – Department of Physics and Astronomy, via Santa Sofia 64 - 95123 – Catania (Italy).
University of Catania - Energy and Environment Division of D.I.I.M. viale Andrea Doria, 6 95125 Catania (Italy).

DOI: 10.4236/ns.2012.428080                

Abstract

The history of the Etna volcano (Sicily) is marked by the alternation of brief intervals of eruptive activity and long periods of apparent inactivity. Usually during the periods of pseudo-inactivity, there are evident symptoms that the volcano is still active, e.g. fumaroles, hot springs and gaseous emissions. The variation of previous phenomena may be used to forecast seismic and volcanic- events. The aim of the research has been to evaluate and analyze the variation in emissions of ultra fine dusts and in soil Radon concentration, during the period of pseudo-inactivity, to obtain indexes able to forecast the possible events. Investigations have been carried out near two active faults on the slopes of Mt. Etna. The present paper presents the results of the monitoring survey, the analysis methodology and the development of the index to forecast possible seismic event. Research is currently in progress to refine the index which could be utilized not only to forecast possible seismic volcanic events, but also as a key to give early warning to the Civil Protection Agency so that they may be ready in time as soon as an eruptive event will occur.

Keywords

Volcanic-Seismic Event; Monitoring; Emission; Ultrafine Dust; Radon

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Singh, M., Ramola, R.C., Singh, B., Singh, S. and Virk, H.S. (1991) Radon anomalies: Correlation with seismic activities in northern India. In: Durrani, A.S. and Radomir, I., Eds., Radon Monitoring in Radioprotection, Environmental and/or Earth Science, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., Hackensack, 354-375.
[2]	Virk, H.S. (1995) Radon monitoring of microseismicity in the Kangra and Chamba Valley of Himachal Pradesh, India. Nuclear Geophysics, 9,141-146.
[3]	Virk, H.S. and Sing, B. (1994) Radon recording of Uttarkashi earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters, 21, 737-740. doi:10.1029/94GL00310
[4]	Al-Hilal, M., Sbeinati, M.R. and Darawcheh, R. (1998) Radon variation and microearthquakes in western Syria. Applied Radiation and Isotopes, 49, 117-123. doi:10.1016/S0969-8043(97)00248-0
[5]	Immè, G., La Delfa, S., Lo Nigro, S., Morelli, D. and Patanè, G. (2006) Soil radon concentration and volcanic activity of Mt. Etna before and after the 2002 eruption. Radiation Measurements, 41, 241-245. doi:10.1016/j.radmeas.2005.06.008
[6]	Immè, G., La Delfa, S., Lo Nigro, S., Morelli, D. and Patanè, G. (2006) Soil radon monitoring in NE flank of Mt. Etna (Sicily). Applied Radiation and Isotopes, 64, 624-629. doi:10.1016/j.apradiso.2005.12.007
[7]	Morelli, D., Immè, G., La Delfa, S., Lo Nigro, S. and Patanè, G. (2006) Evidence of soil radon as tracer of magma uprising at Mt. Etna. Radiation Measurements, 41, 721-725. doi:10.1016/j.radmeas.2006.04.026
[8]	La Delfa, S., Immè, G., Lo Nigro, S., Morelli, D., Patanè, G. and Vizzini, F. (2007) Radon measurements in the SE and NE flank of Mt. Etna (Italy). Radiation Measurements, 42, 1404-1408. doi:10.1016/j.radmeas.2007.06.004
[9]	La Delfa, S., Agostino, I., Morelli, D. and Patanè, G. (2008) Soil radon concentration and effective stress variation at Mt Etna (Sicily) in the period January 2003-April 2005. Radiation Measurements, 43, 1299-1304.
[10]	Morelli, D., Immé, G., Altamore, I., Aranzulla, M., Cammisa, S., Catalano, R., Giammanco, S., La Delfa, S., Mangano, G., Neri, M., Patané, G. and Rosselli-Tazzer, A. (2011) Radiation measurements as tool for environmental and geophysics studies on volcano-tectonic areas. Il Nuovo Cimento C, 1, 155-165.
[11]	Morelli, D., Immé, G., Cammisa, S., Catalano, R., Mangano, G., La Delfa, S. and Patanè, G. (2012) Radioactivity measurements in volcano-tectonic area for geodynamic process study. EPJ Web of Conferences, 24, 05009.
[12]	Benina, A., Imposa, S., Gresta, S. and Patanè, G. (1984) Studio macrosismico e strutturale di due terremoti tettonici avvenuti sul versante meridionale dell’Etna, Atti III. Convegno Annuale Del GNGTS, Roma, 14-16 November 1984, 931-946.
[13]	Patanè, G., Coco, G., Corrao, M., Imposa, S. and Montalto, A. (1995) Source parameters of seismic events at Mount Etna Volcano, Italy, during the outburst of the 1991-1993 eruption. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interior, 89, 149-162. doi:10.1016/0031-9201(95)03013-M
[14]	Romano, R., et al. (1982) Mount Etna Volcano. Memorie Società Geologica Italiana, 23, 205.
[15]	Immè, G., La Delfa, S., Lo Nigro, S., Morelli, D. and Patanè, G. (2005) Gas Radon emission related to geodynamic activity of Mt. Etna. Annals of Geophysics, 48, 65-71.
[16]	Fano, V., Cernigliaro, A., Scondotto, S., Perucci, C.A. and Forastiere, F. (2010) The fear of volcano: Short-term health effects after Mount Etna’s eruption in 2002. European Respiratory Journal, 36, 1216-1218. doi:10.1183/09031936.00078910
[17]	Carn, S.A. (2010) Quantifying tropospheric volcanic emissions with AIRS: The 2002 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy). Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L02301. doi:10.1029/2004GL021034
[18]	Barsotti, S., Andronico, D., Neri, A., Del Carlo, P., Baxter, P.J., Aspinall, W.P. and Hincks, T. (2010) Quantitative assessment of volcanic ash hazards for health and infrastructure at Mt. Etna (Italy) by numerical simulation. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 192, 85-96. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.02.011